Can Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock is down 7.6% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around moderating growth, high debt, and customer loyalty shifts, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Norwegian Cruise Line stands today.
- Size: Norwegian Cruise Line is a $10 Bil company with $9.7 Bil in revenue currently trading at $22.43.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 3.6% and operating margin of 16.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 1.44 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.01
- Valuation: Norwegian Cruise Line stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 6.8
- Has returned (median) -19.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See NCLH Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell NCLH Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is NCLH stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose NCLH stock falls another 20-30% to $16 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- NCLH stock fell 69.2% from a high of $33.71 on 8 June 2021 to $10.38 on 16 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $29.07 on 30 January 2025 , and currently trades at $22.43
| NCLH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -69.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- NCLH stock fell 87.0% from a high of $59.65 on 17 January 2020 to $7.77 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| NCLH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -87.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- NCLH stock fell 35.1% from a high of $60.93 on 26 January 2018 to $39.55 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| NCLH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.1% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about NCLH stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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