Could Cash Machine Vail Resorts Stock Be Your Next Buy?

Vail Resorts (MTN) could be a good pick for your portfolio, with its high cash yield, good fundamentals, and discounted valuation. Companies like this can use cash to fuel additional revenue growth, or simply pay their shareholders through dividends or buybacks. Either move makes them attractive to the market

What Is Happening With MTN

MTN is up 6.2% so far this year but is actually trading at P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio that is at a meaningful discount to its 3-month and 2-year highs, and also belowits 3-year average.

Here is what’s going well for the company: The stock is up 3.76% year-to-date. For the 2025/2026 ski season, Epic Pass sales dollars rose 3% despite a 2% unit decrease, driven by strategic pricing. Vail Resorts reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance and plans $234-$239 million in 2026 capital investments, including new lifts and My Epic app digital enhancements at 11 resorts, boosting guest experience. A multi-year efficiency plan aims for over $100 million in cost savings.

MTN Has Good Fundamentals

• Good Cash Yield: Not many stocks offer free cash flow yield of 7.0%, but Vail Resorts stock does
• Strong Margin: Last 12 month operating margin of 18.1%
• Growth: Last 12 revenue growth of 3.1% – low growth, but this selection is all about high yield and margin
• Valuation: MTN stock currently trading at 34% below 2Y high, 11% below 1M high, and at a PS lower than 3Y average.

Below is a quick comparison of MTN fundamentals with S&P medians.

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

But What Is The Risk Involved?

While MTN stock may be a compelling investment opportunity, it’s always helpful to be aware of a stock’s history of drawdown. MTN fell about 47% in the Dot-Com crash and plunged over 77% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction dragged it down nearly 40%, while the Covid selloff triggered a 48% drop. Even the inflation shock knocked it back more than 44%. Strong fundamentals matter, but when the market turns sour, MTN still shows significant vulnerability. But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read MTN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

For more details and our view, see Buy or Sell MTN Stock.

Stocks Like MTN

Not ready to act on MTN? Consider these alternatives:

1. Teleflex (TFX)
2. Qualys (QLYS)
3. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

We chose these stocks using the following criteria:

1. Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
2. Dipped last month & meaningfully below 2Y high
3. Current P/S < last few year average
4. Strong operating margin with no instances of large margin collapse
5. High free cash flow yield

A portfolio of stocks with the criteria above would have performed has follows since 12/31/2016:

• Average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 10.4% and 20.4% respectively
• Win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 74% for 12-month period
• Strategy consistent across market cycles

A Multi Asset Portfolio Beats Picking Stocks Alone

Individual stocks can soar or tank but multi asset exposure steadies the ride. A spread out portfolio captures upside while limiting the damage from any one market.

The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices