Tearsheet

Vail Resorts (MTN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $156.2 | Market Cap: $5.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Vail Resorts (MTN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $156.2
Market Cap: $5.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100%
Key risks
MTN key risks include [1] operational challenges stemming from its high fixed-cost structure and the difficulties of staffing and securing adequate housing for its seasonal workforce in resort communities.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Resource Management, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Resource Management, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100%
5 Key risks
MTN key risks include [1] operational challenges stemming from its high fixed-cost structure and the difficulties of staffing and securing adequate housing for its seasonal workforce in resort communities.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MTN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, Vail Resorts (MTN) experienced a stock movement of -3.1%, influenced by several key factors:

1. Vail Resorts reported a miss on Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings and revenue expectations. On September 29, 2025, the company announced its fiscal fourth-quarter results for the period ended July 31, 2025, reporting revenue of $271.3 million, which fell short of analyst consensus estimates of approximately $276.6 million. Additionally, the non-GAAP loss per share was reported at $5.08, wider than the estimated loss of $4.78 per share. This dual miss led to an immediate negative reaction in after-market trading.

2. North American season pass unit sales for the 2025/2026 ski season showed a decline. As of December 5, 2025, North American pass product sales decreased approximately 2% in units compared to the same selling period in the prior year. While sales dollars increased by about 3% due to price increases, the reduction in units indicated a potential softening in overall demand or visitor volume.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MTN Return18%18%-25%-7%-8%-12%-21%
Peers Return-12%5%-2%28%11%23%59%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTN Win Rate58%42%33%50%42%42% 
Peers Win Rate43%50%50%58%55%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTN Max Drawdown-44%-6%-37%-11%-20%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-21%-24%-3%-13%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HST, MAR, HLT, WYNN, LVS. See MTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven220 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven764 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-77.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven345.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,530 days1,480 days

Compare to DKNG, H, SCI, HGV, VAC


In The Past

Vail Resorts's stock fell -45.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -45.3% loss requires a 82.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Vail Resorts (MTN)

Better Bets than Vail Resorts (MTN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
MTN_4302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.6%16.9%-1.3%
MTN_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.0%19.6%-6.5%
MTN_1312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01312019MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
32.0%28.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
MTN_4302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.6%16.9%-1.3%
MTN_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.0%19.6%-6.5%
MTN_1312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01312019MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
32.0%28.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vail Resorts

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MTNHSTMARHLTWYNNLVSMedian
NameVail Res.Host Hot.Marriott.Hilton W.Wynn Res.Las Vega. 
Mkt Price156.4418.57310.07293.00125.4466.49140.94
Mkt Cap5.412.884.368.612.945.329.1
Rev LTM2,9755,93925,92511,7357,11112,2649,423
Op Inc LTM5378084,1372,5801,4532,8172,016
FCF LTM3526711,9272,2967371,215976
FCF 3Y Avg3528242,3231,9167461,3891,106
CFO LTM5881,2982,7012,5081,3542,7341,931
CFO 3Y Avg5881,4222,9142,1221,2102,7151,772

Growth & Margins

MTNHSTMARHLTWYNNLVSMedian
NameVail Res.Host Hot.Marriott.Hilton W.Wynn Res.Las Vega. 
Rev Chg LTM3.1%6.5%4.7%6.7%-0.3%8.4%5.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%8.6%10.6%13.1%25.0%51.6%11.9%
Rev Chg Q4.1%0.9%3.7%8.8%8.3%24.2%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%0.2%0.9%2.2%2.0%5.6%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM18.1%13.6%16.0%22.0%20.4%23.0%19.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.2%14.0%16.3%22.0%16.1%21.0%17.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.2%0.6%0.8%2.2%1.1%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM19.8%21.9%10.4%21.4%19.0%22.3%20.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.2%25.6%11.8%19.4%18.0%25.4%19.8%
FCF/Rev LTM11.8%11.3%7.4%19.6%10.4%9.9%10.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.1%14.8%9.4%17.5%11.1%13.0%12.5%

Valuation

MTNHSTMARHLTWYNNLVSMedian
NameVail Res.Host Hot.Marriott.Hilton W.Wynn Res.Las Vega. 
Mkt Cap5.412.884.368.612.945.329.1
P/S1.82.02.75.21.93.02.4
P/EBIT-11.616.923.410.312.812.8
P/E20.215.927.136.526.223.624.9
P/CFO9.19.026.224.29.813.411.6
Total Yield6.4%11.6%4.7%2.9%5.2%6.4%5.8%
Dividend Yield1.5%5.3%1.0%0.1%1.3%2.2%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.0%3.5%3.8%6.6%3.8%3.8%
D/E-0.50.20.20.90.40.4
Net D/E-0.40.20.20.80.30.3

Returns

MTNHSTMARHLTWYNNLVSMedian
NameVail Res.Host Hot.Marriott.Hilton W.Wynn Res.Las Vega. 
1M Rtn11.9%7.8%9.6%10.1%6.2%2.5%8.7%
3M Rtn6.5%7.2%18.6%10.0%2.0%26.7%8.6%
6M Rtn3.7%21.0%21.0%18.5%45.0%60.6%21.0%
12M Rtn-12.7%4.8%8.2%17.3%37.7%26.6%12.8%
3Y Rtn-28.8%28.0%107.8%125.7%50.0%46.6%48.3%
1M Excs Rtn11.1%7.0%8.9%9.4%5.4%1.7%8.0%
3M Excs Rtn3.8%5.4%16.4%8.7%-3.7%24.1%7.1%
6M Excs Rtn-8.6%8.6%8.6%6.1%32.6%48.2%8.6%
12M Excs Rtn-24.4%-5.4%-2.0%5.1%22.9%15.0%1.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-100.1%-48.2%27.4%44.7%-19.1%-24.4%-21.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Mountain2,5442,5412,2131,7031,710
Lodging336340312205248
Real Estate58125
Total2,8852,8892,5261,9101,964


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,531,209
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-14.8%
Average Daily Volume823,271
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.29
Basic Shares Quantity35,910,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/10/20259.3%  
9/29/20251.0%6.9%4.5%
6/5/2025-2.9%-0.8%8.9%
3/10/20257.7%5.8%-13.3%
12/9/20242.5%0.3%-4.8%
9/26/2024-3.9%-7.4%-9.3%
6/6/2024-10.3%-6.5%-9.5%
3/11/20240.7%-0.6%4.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1499
# Negative101515
Median Positive2.7%5.8%4.5%
Median Negative-4.3%-4.5%-9.4%
Max Positive9.3%8.6%11.5%
Max Negative-10.3%-15.5%-16.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251210202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025929202510-K 7/31/2025
4302025605202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025310202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241209202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024926202410-K 7/31/2024
4302024606202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024311202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231207202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023928202310-K 7/31/2023
4302023608202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023309202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221208202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022928202210-K 7/31/2022
4302022609202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022314202210-Q 1/31/2022