Vail Resorts (MTN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $140.69 | Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Vail Resorts (MTN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $140.69Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 5.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Resource Management, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Resource Management, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Vail Resorts' Fiscal 2026 Outlook Projected Modest Decline or Stabilization.
Vail Resorts reported its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full year results on September 29, 2025, showing an increase in net income for fiscal 2025. However, its outlook for fiscal year 2026 projected a more cautious stance with expected net income and Resort Reported EBITDA indicating a potential modest decline or stabilization in profitability, designating fiscal 2026 as a "transition year."
2. Decline in Season Pass Sales and Skier Visits for the 2025/2026 Season.
Season pass sales for the upcoming 2025/2026 North American ski season, through September 19, 2025, experienced a decrease of approximately 3% in units, despite a 7% price increase for the Epic Pass, indicating weaker demand. Furthermore, total skier visits across the company's North American properties for fiscal 2025 also declined by 3%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTN Return | 18% | 18% | -25% | -7% | -8% | -23% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 65% | 25% | -22% | 45% | 10% | -7% | 138% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 40% | 50% | 48% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTN Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -37% | -11% | -20% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -15% | -35% | -17% | -11% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DKNG, H, SCI, HGV, VAC. See MTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 764 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 345.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1530 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DKNG, H, SCI, HGV, VAC
In The Past
Vail Resorts's stock fell -45.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -45.3% loss requires a 82.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.6% | 2.7% | -1.3% |
| 06302022 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.0% | 19.6% | -6.5% |
| 01312019 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.0% | 28.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.6% | 2.7% | -1.3% |
| 06302022 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.0% | 19.6% | -6.5% |
| 01312019 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.0% | 28.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vail Resorts
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| Rev LTM | 5,038 |
| Op Inc LTM | 545 |
| FCF LTM | 213 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 245 |
| CFO LTM | 428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 418 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.1 |
| P/E | 15.1 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9292025 | 10-K 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3102025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12092024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9262024 | 10-K 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6062024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3112024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9282023 | 10-K 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6082023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9282022 | 10-K 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6092022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3142022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12092021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |