Marvell Technology Stock To $61?

Marvell Technology (MRVL) stock has jumped 28% during the past month, and is currently trading at $86.22. Our machine-driven multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to reduce exposure to MRVL stock. We are primarily concerned current valuation and a price of $61 may not be out of reach. We believe there are only a couple of things to fear in MRVL stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive.

Below is our assessment:

MRVL stock has jumped meaningfully recently and we currently find it relatively expensive. While this may feel like an opportunity, there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. On the other hand, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach. If you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio (HQ) – HQ has outperformed its benchmark – a combination of S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap index, and achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Risk management is key – consider, what could long-term portfolio performance be if you blended 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with HQ’s performance metrics.

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $74 Bil in market cap, Marvell Technology provides integrated circuits and Ethernet solutions, including controllers, adapters, transceivers, switches, and storage controllers for HDDs and SSDs supporting diverse host system interfaces.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how MRVL is valued vs broader market. For more details see: MRVL Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• Marvell Technology has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 10.9% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 37% from $5.3 Bil to $7.2 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 57.6% to $2.0 Bil in the most recent quarter from $1.3 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how MRVL is growing vs broader market. For more details see: MRVL Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Weak

• MRVL last 12 month operating income was $435 Mil representing operating margin of 6.0%
• With cash flow margin of 25.5%, it generated nearly $1.8 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, MRVL generated nearly $-103 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -1.4%

This table highlights how MRVL profitability vs broader market. For more details see: MRVL Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• MRVL Debt was $4.8 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $74 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 6.4%
• MRVL Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $1.2 Bil of $21 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 5.9%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

MRVL has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• MRVL stock fell 62.1% from a high of $91.51 on 7 December 2021 to $34.68 on 5 January 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 November 2024
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $126.06 on 23 January 2025 , and currently trades at $86.22

2020 Covid Pandemic

• MRVL stock fell 39.5% from a high of $28.49 on 17 January 2020 to $17.25 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 May 2020

2008 Global Financial Crisis

• MRVL stock fell 77.1% from a high of $20.88 on 10 January 2007 to $4.78 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 January 2010

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read MRVL Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.