How Will Marvell Technology Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. The company has $76 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $435 Mil in operating profits and net income of $-103 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Marvell Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 33% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 25% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 6 positive returns = 13%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -6.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/28/2025 | -18.6% | -18.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/29/2025 | -5.6% | 2.2% | 21.4% |
| 3/5/2025 | -19.8% | -22.5% | -38.3% |
| 12/3/2024 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 23.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | 9.2% | -5.2% | 3.3% |
| 5/30/2024 | -10.5% | -11.4% | -7.6% |
| 3/7/2024 | -11.4% | -22.3% | -15.5% |
| 11/30/2023 | -5.3% | -6.4% | 4.4% |
| 8/24/2023 | -6.6% | 1.7% | -8.1% |
| 5/25/2023 | 32.4% | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| 3/2/2023 | -4.7% | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.5% | -8.1% | -20.7% |
| 8/25/2022 | -8.9% | -16.6% | -22.7% |
| 5/26/2022 | 6.7% | 3.5% | -20.5% |
| 3/3/2022 | -2.7% | 0.1% | 9.0% |
| 12/2/2021 | 17.7% | 26.7% | 25.9% |
| 8/26/2021 | -3.0% | -3.0% | -0.3% |
| 6/7/2021 | 5.1% | 11.5% | 17.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 7.3% | 17.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -11.4% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 32.4% | 26.7% | 25.9% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -22.5% | -38.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.2% | -10.2% | -13.5% |
| 3Y History | -38.9% | -14.9% | 0.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Marvell Technology stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Marvell Technology. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL Earnings Dates | MRVL | KLAC | MCHP | FSLR |
| 8/28/2025 | -18.6% | 1.9% | -0.8% | 12.8% |
| 5/29/2025 | -5.6% | 10.4% | 19.2% | N/A* |
| 3/5/2025 | -19.8% | N/A* | 13.1% | -20.2% |
| 12/3/2024 | 23.2% | N/A* | -12.3% | N/A* |
| 8/29/2024 | 9.2% | N/A* | -3.5% | N/A* |
| 5/30/2024 | -10.5% | N/A* | 3.2% | N/A* |
| 3/7/2024 | -11.4% | N/A* | N/A* | 10.6% |
| 11/30/2023 | -5.3% | N/A* | 14.0% | N/A* |
| 8/24/2023 | -6.6% | -1.0% | -12.7% | -12.3% |
| 5/25/2023 | 32.4% | 21.9% | -2.0% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2023 | -4.7% | N/A* | -3.7% | 17.2% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.5% | N/A* | 32.3% | N/A* |
| 8/25/2022 | -8.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 37.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.4% | N/A* |
| 3/3/2022 | -2.7% | N/A* | -6.6% | -10.9% |
| 12/2/2021 | 17.7% | N/A* | 1.9% | -12.5% |
| 8/26/2021 | -3.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 11.9% |
| CORRELATION | 32.5% | -2.4% | -6.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MRVL
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