MRVL Lost 15% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait?
Marvell Technology (MRVL) stock is down 15.1% in 21 trading days. The stock still looks expensive which, combined with history of only modest recovery post dips, suggests some risk. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $58 Bil company with $7.2 Bil in revenue currently trading at $67.35.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 37.1% and operating margin of 6.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.08 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.06
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of -561.9 and P/EBIT multiple of 565.7
- Has returned (median) 18.9% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See MRVL Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for MRVL, see Buy or Sell MRVL Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and MRVL drops another 20-30% to $47.14 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Marvell Technology (MRVL) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: MRVL provides analog, mixed-signal, and digital integrated circuits, Ethernet solutions, and storage controllers for hard drives and solid-state drives supporting multiple host system interfaces.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- MRVL stock fell 62.1% from a high of $91.51 on 7 December 2021 to $34.68 on 5 January 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 November 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $126.06 on 23 January 2025 , and currently trades at $67.35
| MRVL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -62.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 672 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- MRVL stock fell 39.5% from a high of $28.49 on 17 January 2020 to $17.25 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 May 2020
| MRVL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -39.5% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 63 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- MRVL stock fell 40.9% from a high of $24.37 on 12 March 2018 to $14.41 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 April 2019
| MRVL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 114 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- MRVL stock fell 77.1% from a high of $20.88 on 10 January 2007 to $4.78 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 January 2010
| MRVL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -77.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 410 days | 1480 days |
Worried that MRVL could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.