Moderna Stock Slides -18% With A 5-Day Losing Spree
Moderna (MRNA) – a developer of mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines – hit a 5-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -18%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $3.9 Bil over the last 5 days and currently stands at $18 Bil.
Is this an opportunity or a trap? There are several things to fear in MRNA stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Very Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell MRNA).
But here is the interesting part. You are reading about this -18% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To manage individual stock risk before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to manage stock-specific drawdowns better.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MRNA stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MRNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -3.0% | -0.0% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | -17.8% | -0.0% |
| 1M (21D) | -5.2% | 12.5% |
| 3M (63D) | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| YTD 2026 | 55.0% | 4.2% |
| 2025 | -29.1% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -58.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -44.6% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: MRNA Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 33 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 92 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 25 | 40 |
| 4D | 6 | 26 |
| 5D | 1 | 13 |
| 6D | 0 | 5 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 8 |
| Total >=3 D | 33 | 92 |
Key Financials for Moderna (MRNA)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $3.2 Bil | $1.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-3.9 Bil | $-3.1 Bil |
| Net Income | $-3.6 Bil | $-2.8 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.0 Bil | $676.0 Mil |
| Operating Income | $-260.0 Mil | $-857.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-200.0 Mil | $-826.0 Mil |
The losing streak MRNA stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.