How Will Apple Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $4.0 Tril in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $436 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $141 Bil in operating profits and net income of $118 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Apple’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 4.0%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.8% | -6.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.6% | -4.1% | -0.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.7% | -4.2% | -8.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| 10/28/2021 | -1.8% | -1.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/27/2021 | -1.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -3.2% | -5.3% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.8% | -7.4% | -8.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -30.2% | -33.7% | -12.9% |
| 3Y History | -6.2% | -1.0% | 13.2% |
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