How Will SanDisk Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $147 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $-1.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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SanDisk’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 4 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 3 positive and 1 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 75% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 3 positive returns = 6.9%, and median of the 1 negative returns = -4.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 6.9% | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 19.9% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 18.5% | -87.9% | -85.4% |
| 3Y History | 18.5% | -87.9% | -85.4% |
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