How Will Altria Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Altria (NYSE:MO) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $114 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $20 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $12 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.9 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Altria’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.9%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.3% | 3.2% | 9.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | -7.8% | -7.8% | -4.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | 5.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 6.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.0% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -6.8% | -3.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 0.4% | 5.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | 2.7% | -0.8% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -7.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | 2.1% | -1.2% | 2.4% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -2.9% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.3% | -7.8% | -7.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -48.2% | -28.4% | 0.1% |
| 3Y History | -51.6% | -33.2% | 4.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Altria stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Altria. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MO Earnings Dates | MO | PM | STZ |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.3% | N/A* | 10.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -7.8% | -4.1% | -6.4% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | -1.9% | 3.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 1.0% | -4.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | 5.1% | -2.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | -1.6% | -2.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.0% | N/A* | 2.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -1.1% | -4.1% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | 0.1% | N/A* |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.6% | N/A* | 11.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 3.8% | 6.6% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | -2.5% | 3.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.8% | N/A* | -4.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -6.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% |
| 7/29/2021 | 2.1% | 5.6% | -4.0% |
| CORRELATION | 24.0% | 11.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MO
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