How Will Merck Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Merck (NYSE:MRK) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $273 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $65 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $22 Bil in operating profits and net income of $18 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Merck’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | 2.2% | 3.8% | 6.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.3% | -2.5% | 17.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -1.7% | -5.0% | 1.1% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.4% | 8.2% | -1.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | -9.1% | -13.4% | -6.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.4% | -3.9% | -3.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | -9.8% | -12.1% | -8.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.9% | -0.8% | -1.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | -1.3% | -0.5% | 3.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.5% | 4.2% | -1.0% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.3% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| 10/27/2022 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 9.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | -1.4% | -4.0% | -1.1% |
| 4/21/2022 | -1.9% | 2.7% | 8.5% |
| 2/3/2022 | -3.7% | -6.7% | -5.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 6.1% | 8.8% | -2.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -1.8% | -3.6% | -2.2% |
| 4/29/2021 | -4.4% | 0.8% | -1.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -3.9% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 8.8% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -13.4% | -8.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 36.5% | -37.6% | -60.8% |
| 3Y History | 60.7% | -24.1% | -63.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Merck stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Merck. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| MRK Earnings Dates | MRK | JNJ |
| 2/3/2026 | 2.2% | 6.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.3% | -0.9% |
| 7/29/2025 | -1.7% | 2.0% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | -9.1% | 5.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.4% | -2.6% |
| 7/30/2024 | -9.8% | 3.0% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.6% | -0.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.9% | -4.5% |
| 8/1/2023 | -1.3% | 0.3% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.3% | -1.6% |
| 10/27/2022 | 1.4% | 3.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | -1.4% | 1.5% |
| 4/21/2022 | -1.9% | 0.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | -3.7% | 3.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 6.1% | -0.6% |
| 7/29/2021 | -1.8% | 1.6% |
| CORRELATION | -31.1% |
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