How Will Marathon Petroleum Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $74 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $133 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.8 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Marathon Petroleum’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 70% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 14 positive returns = 3.8%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -4.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | 6.0% | 15.5% | 25.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.1% | 0.3% | -2.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.6% | -5.6% | 7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.7% | 4.6% | -7.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -9.4% | -8.8% | -13.6% |
| 1/30/2024 | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 8/1/2023 | 1.4% | 5.2% | 8.3% |
| 5/2/2023 | -4.5% | -11.2% | -13.7% |
| 1/31/2023 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 0.6% |
| 11/1/2022 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% |
| 8/2/2022 | 3.7% | 0.1% | 13.1% |
| 5/3/2022 | 4.0% | 2.0% | 17.3% |
| 2/2/2022 | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | -3.9% | -2.4% | -8.6% |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| 5/4/2021 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 11.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -8.8% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.7% | 15.5% | 25.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -11.2% | -13.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -8.0% | 15.5% | -15.1% |
| 3Y History | 3.6% | 17.0% | -3.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Marathon Petroleum stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Marathon Petroleum. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MPC Earnings Dates | MPC | PSX | DINO |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.1% | -1.6% | 1.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.6% | -2.3% | -0.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 4.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.7% | 4.9% | N/A* |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.2% | -1.2% | 3.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.5% | -9.6% | -7.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -9.4% | -5.4% | N/A* |
| 10/31/2023 | 3.0% | 2.8% | N/A* |
| 8/2/2022 | 3.7% | -1.6% | N/A* |
| 5/3/2022 | 4.0% | 4.6% | N/A* |
| 2/2/2022 | 6.1% | 4.1% | N/A* |
| 11/2/2021 | -3.9% | 3.7% | N/A* |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.8% | -5.8% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 16.3% | -23.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MPC
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