The Copper Rally Is Changing Everything For Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) stock quietly went from around $70 in October 2025 to around $104 by May 2026. That’s a 47% jump in about six months from a company most investors usually call “boring.”

The reason was simple: copper.

Copper prices surged to nearly $11,200 per tonne in late 2025, and suddenly the market started paying attention to Rio’s copper business. The biggest driver was the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, where copper output jumped 61% in 2025 to 345,000 tonnes.

Rio now expects Oyu Tolgoi to produce 500,000 tonnes a year between 2028 and 2036. That’s a massive growth engine.

The financials backed it up, too. FY2025 revenue rose 7% to $57.6 billion. EBITDA climbed 9% to $25.4 billion. Operating cash flow increased 8% to $16.8 billion. But the standout number was copper EBITDA, which surged 114% to $7.4 billion.

Iron ore was softer, with EBITDA down 11% because prices fell, but copper more than made up for it.

Rio also kept its dividend strong, paying $4.02 per share and maintaining its 60% payout ratio for the tenth straight year.

See how RIO’s financials compare to its peers, VALE, Cleveland-Cliffs, MDU Resources, Lithium Americas, and Intrepid Potash.

Another major moment came when Simandou in Guinea finally started operations after years of delays. The first shipment to China went out in late 2025, turning what used to be a long-running headache into a real asset.

The momentum continued into Q1 2026. Copper production rose another 9%, while Oyu Tolgoi output jumped 56% year over year. Even after cyclone disruptions in Pilbara, management kept 2026 guidance unchanged.

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For 2026, Rio expects, copper production of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes, iron ore shipments of 323 to 338 million tonnes, aluminum production of 3.25 to 3.45 million tonnes, and lithium production of 61,000 to 64,000 tonnes LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent).

Lithium is becoming a bigger part of the story after the Arcadium acquisition, though it also pushed net debt up sharply from $5.5 billion to $14.4 billion.

The next big test comes on July 29, when Rio reports H1 2026 earnings. Investors will be watching copper cash flow, debt levels, iron ore prices, and how quickly Oyu Tolgoi ramps up.

Long term, Rio wants to hit 1 million tonnes of annual copper production by 2030. If copper demand stays strong because of electrification and grid expansion, the company’s transformation may still be in the early innings.

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