MOS’s 5.8% Single Day Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is CF a Better Deal?
CF Industries (CF) offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Mosaic (MOS), suggesting you may be better off investing in CF
- CF’s quarterly revenue growth was 20.2%, vs. MOS’s 6.7%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 9.5%, ahead of MOS’s -7.7%.
- CF leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 29.2% and 3-year average of 32.8%.
MOS produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients globally, operating mines and offering products like diammonium phosphate and ammoniated phosphate through three business segments. CF manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and industrial uses, including ammonia, urea, and related products worldwide.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| MOS | CF | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 14.3 | 7.9 | CF |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 6.7% | 20.2% | CF |
| Last 12 Months | -7.7% | 9.5% | CF |
| Last 3 Year Average | -11.2% | -12.4% | MOS |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 7.1% | 29.2% | CF |
| Last 3 Year Average | 10.1% | 32.8% | CF |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -19.8% | 4.6% | CF |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: MOS Revenue Comparison | CF Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: MOS Operating Income Comparison | CF Operating Income Comparison
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell CF Stock to see if CF Industries’s edge holds up under the hood or if Mosaic still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell MOS Stock).
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| MOS Return | 8% | 72% | 13% | -16% | -29% | 49% | 75% | ||
| CF Return | -16% | 87% | 22% | -5% | 10% | 9% | 105% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| MOS Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 62% | 58% | ||
| CF Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 62% | 58% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 62% | 63% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| MOS Max Drawdown | -68% | 0% | -1% | -27% | -31% | -7% | -22% | ||
| CF Max Drawdown | -55% | -0% | -9% | -29% | -12% | -19% | -21% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 9/24/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read CF Dip Buyer Analyses and MOS Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.