Altria Stock Fell 11% in a Week, What Now?
Altria (MO) stock is down 11.1% in 5 trading days. The stock looks fairly priced at the moment, though history suggests you may benefit from buying dips. Consider the following data:
- Size: Altria is a $95 Bil company with $20 Bil in revenue currently trading at $56.67.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -0.2% and operating margin of 59.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.26 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.04
- Valuation: Altria stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 10.9 and P/EBIT multiple of 8.1
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 75.9% within a year. See MO Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for MO, see Buy or Sell MO Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and MO drops another 20-30% to $40 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. That is one way to look at stocks. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: MO provides smokeable and oral tobacco products in the U.S., including cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, and moist smokeless tobacco under various leading brand names.
2022 Inflation Shock
- MO stock fell 27.2% from a high of $56.57 on 6 May 2022 to $41.16 on 6 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 November 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $67.68 on 21 August 2025 , and currently trades at $56.67
| MO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -27.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 870 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- MO stock fell 38.8% from a high of $51.25 on 15 January 2020 to $31.38 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 March 2021
| MO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -38.8% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 364 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- MO stock fell 48.4% from a high of $77.71 on 19 June 2017 to $40.12 on 19 September 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| MO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -48.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- MO stock fell 81.8% from a high of $79.21 on 9 January 2008 to $14.45 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| MO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -81.8% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 1480 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low MO could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.