3M stock (NYSE: MMM) is down 19% in a month, while it’s down a significant 32% this year, underperforming the broader indices, with the S&P500 index down 16%. The recent fall can be attributed to the ongoing litigation alleging that 3M’s earplugs caused hearing damage for more than 230,000 veterans. 3M has been trying to resolve the claims through the bankruptcy of its subsidiary – Aearo Technologies – who originally made those earplugs. However, a bankruptcy court rejected 3M’s bid to stop the cases against the parent company. 
Note that 3M is currently in the process of restructuring. It completed the spin-off of its food safety business and merged it with Neogen, and it is now working on the spinoff of its healthcare business by the end of 2023. However, recently, veterans have sued 3M to block its planned healthcare spinoff.  These developments did not sit well with the investors, resulting in a price drop for 3M stock.
But now that MMM stock has seen a -19% move in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase in MMM stock over the next month. MMM stock has seen a move of -19% or more only nine times in the last ten years. Seven of those resulted in MMM stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 7 out of 9, or a 78% chance of a rise in MMM stock over the coming month. See our analysis on 3M Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving -3.5% or more over five days, the stock rose on 58% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -15.0% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 15% of the occasions
- After moving -18.8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 78% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of a fall in MMM stock over the next ten days and a higher chance of a rise in the next five days and one month.
3M (MMM) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500
- Five-Day Return: HON highest at -0.8%; GLW lowest at -4.4%
- Ten-Day Return: GE highest at -3.3%; MMM lowest at -15.0%
- Twenty-One Days Return: GE highest at -2.1%; MMM lowest at -18.8%
While MMM stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how 3M’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Acuity Brands vs. Footlocker.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, among other factors, MMM stock has seen a 32% fall this year. Can it drop more? See how low 3M stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||1%||-16%||78%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||0%||-15%||235%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/8/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
- 3M combat earplug lawsuits to proceed, judge rules, despite bankruptcy case, Reuters, Aug 27, 2022 [↩]
- Veterans seeking earplug damages sue to block 3M healthcare spinoff, Brendan Pierson, Reuters, Sep 2, 2022 [↩]