Magnite Stock To $13?
Magnite (MGNI) stock has fallen by 27.7% in less than a month, from $25.92 on 9/19/2025 to $18.73 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $13 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on MGNI stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) 13% in one year, and 51% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, MGNI provides an independent sell-side advertising platform enabling publishers to manage and monetize digital advertising inventory across CTV channels, apps, websites, and other digital media properties globally.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Magnite Stock to see the full picture.
MGNI stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it unattractive. This may feel like a caution, and there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. However, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Separately, consider what could long-term performance for your portfolio be if you combined 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with equities.
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Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -2.3% |
| 3M | -8.2% |
| 6M | -2.0% |
| 12M | 12.6% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
MGNI had 17 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 51% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 168 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -32% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | MGNI Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | MGNI | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 13% | 51% | -32% | 168 | ||||
| 10102025 | -34% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 4 | ||
| 3132025 | -31% | -8% | 49% | 120% | -25% | 168 | ||
| 8102023 | -42% | 2% | 54% | 98% | -19% | 341 | ||
| 3152023 | -30% | -4% | 35% | 84% | -23% | 120 | ||
| 9232022 | -31% | -12% | 13% | 137% | -11% | 293 | ||
| 7142022 | -34% | -8% | 111% | 114% | -20% | 364 | ||
| 5092022 | -32% | -12% | 3% | 51% | -37% | 284 | ||
| 1212022 | -31% | -6% | -17% | 16% | -55% | 67 | ||
| 11232021 | -33% | 8% | -45% | 0% | -70% | 1 | ||
| 3242021 | -36% | -0% | -67% | 8% | -73% | 8 | ||
| 3122020 | -39% | -24% | 708% | 915% | -32% | 336 | ||
| 3012018 | -33% | -4% | 307% | 303% | 0% | 365 | ||
| 11032017 | -47% | 4% | 54% | 96% | -28% | 294 | ||
| 8102017 | -31% | 0% | -6% | 8% | -61% | 34 | ||
| 3162017 | -33% | 5% | -65% | 7% | -74% | 54 | ||
| 8032016 | -34% | 4% | -57% | 6% | -57% | 6 | ||
| 5152014 | -34% | -1% | 30% | 49% | -32% | 286 | ||
Magnite Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 5.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 7.7% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 33.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 2.8 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 14.9 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.