With Carnival Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
Carnival (CCL) stock is up 12.6% in 5 trading days. The rally reflects record earnings, an upbeat 2026 forecast, and a reinstated dividend, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Carnival stands today.
- Size: Carnival is a $42 Bil company with $26 Bil in revenue currently trading at $32.20.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 7.1% and operating margin of 16.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.66 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03
- Valuation: Carnival stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 16.0 and P/EBIT multiple of 10.3
- Has returned (median) 9.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CCL Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell CCL Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is CCL stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose CCL stock falls 20-30% to $23 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- CCL stock fell 79.6% from a high of $31.31 on 2 June 2021 to $6.38 on 10 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 August 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $32.49 on 28 August 2025 , and currently trades at $32.20
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,051 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CCL stock fell 84.6% from a high of $51.90 on 17 January 2020 to $7.97 on 2 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -84.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CCL stock fell 44.2% from a high of $71.94 on 29 January 2018 to $40.13 on 8 October 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -44.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CCL stock fell 70.7% from a high of $51.33 on 9 October 2007 to $15.02 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 July 2015
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2,426 days | 1,480 days |
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