MGM Resorts stock (NYSE:MGM) has gained about 16% over the last month (21 trading days) outperforming the S&P 500 which remains up by about 5% over the same period. The rally is driven by a couple of factors. Firstly, China has eased its stringent zero-Covid policy and this is expected to lead to a revival in the Macau gaming market, which had taken a considerable hit over the last two years, impacted by frequent lockdowns and travel restrictions. Although MGM has a lower exposure to Macau compared to its U.S. gaming peers, this should provide the company with earnings upside. Moreover, the Las Vegas strip, which accounts for the bulk of the company’s business, is also booming. Leisure demand remains strong despite signs of a cooling economy and the convention business is also expected to pick up. MGM appears to be well positioned to cater to this demand, given the acquisition of the Aria and Vdara properties and The Cosmopolitan over 2021 and 2022.
However, now that MGM stock has seen a gain of about 16% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or a decline in MGM stock over the next month. There were 204 instances in the last 10 years when MGM Resorts (MGM) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 16% or more. 97 of those instances resulted in MGM stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 97 out of 204, or about a 48% chance of a rise in MGM Resorts stock over the next month. See our analysis on MGM Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving 1% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 51% of the occasions.
- After moving 7% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 54% of the occasions.
- After moving 17% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 48% of the occasions.
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|S&P 500 Return||3%||3%||77%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||7%||7%||236%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/25/2023
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016