How Will Medtronic Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. The company has $95 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $35 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $6.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding MDT stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
Medtronic’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 2.9%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/17/2026 | -3.1% | -0.9% | -11.1% |
| 11/18/2025 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| 8/19/2025 | -3.1% | -0.8% | 1.9% |
| 5/21/2025 | -2.3% | -5.9% | -0.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | -7.3% | -2.8% | -0.6% |
| 11/19/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | -8.6% |
| 8/20/2024 | 0.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| 5/23/2024 | -5.1% | -6.0% | -5.5% |
| 2/20/2024 | 1.7% | -0.9% | -0.4% |
| 11/21/2023 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.1% |
| 8/22/2023 | 2.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/25/2023 | -4.5% | -5.4% | 0.2% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.8% | -1.7% | -4.2% |
| 11/22/2022 | -5.3% | -7.1% | -5.4% |
| 8/23/2022 | -3.1% | -4.5% | -7.9% |
| 5/26/2022 | -5.8% | -6.7% | -13.6% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.1% | 4.4% | 8.3% |
| 11/23/2021 | -3.0% | -8.7% | -12.8% |
| 8/24/2021 | 3.2% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.7% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -8.7% | -13.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 6.0% | 8.9% | 3.2% |
| 3Y History | -16.2% | -6.6% | -6.8% |
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as MDT, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.