How Will MongoDB Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 28, 2026. The company has $25 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.5 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-137 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-71 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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MongoDB’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 19%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -20%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/2/2026 | -22.2% | -16.4% | -24.7% |
| 8/26/2025 | 38.0% | 46.0% | 47.1% |
| 6/4/2025 | 12.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | -26.9% | -25.7% | -38.2% |
| 12/9/2024 | -16.9% | -24.1% | -30.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | 18.3% | 14.7% | 10.0% |
| 5/30/2024 | -23.9% | -25.8% | -15.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | -6.9% | -10.5% | -11.8% |
| 12/5/2023 | -10.7% | -9.4% | -15.7% |
| 8/31/2023 | 3.0% | -1.1% | -8.5% |
| 6/1/2023 | 28.0% | 27.5% | 40.0% |
| 3/8/2023 | -8.4% | -7.2% | -5.6% |
| 12/6/2022 | 23.2% | 42.4% | 17.4% |
| 8/31/2022 | -25.3% | -23.3% | -38.5% |
| 6/1/2022 | 18.6% | 23.7% | 11.2% |
| 3/8/2022 | 18.6% | 5.9% | 49.7% |
| 12/6/2021 | 16.4% | 15.3% | -0.1% |
| 9/2/2021 | 26.3% | 21.7% | 10.8% |
| 6/3/2021 | 16.3% | 21.5% | 33.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 18.6% | 21.6% | 17.4% |
| Median Negative | -19.6% | -16.4% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 38.0% | 46.0% | 49.7% |
| Max Negative | -26.9% | -25.8% | -38.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 13.5% | 40.0% | 22.8% |
| 3Y History | 28.8% | 37.5% | 40.2% |
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