How Will Baker Hughes Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR) is set to report its earnings on Monday, July 27, 2026. The company has $56 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $28 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $3.6 billion in operating profits and net income of $3.1 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Baker Hughes’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 4/23/2026 | 6.9% | 8.0% | 2.8% |
| 1/26/2026 | 4.4% | 3.9% | 20.5% |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -0.6% | 0.5% |
| 7/22/2025 | 11.6% | 14.3% | 7.6% |
| 4/22/2025 | -6.4% | -6.4% | -3.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.5% | 5.3% | -1.8% |
| 10/22/2024 | 2.8% | 3.1% | 23.8% |
| 7/25/2024 | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | -1.0% | -1.2% | -2.1% |
| 1/23/2024 | -4.7% | -6.9% | -6.7% |
| 10/25/2023 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| 7/19/2023 | 0.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 4/19/2023 | 3.6% | -0.7% | -6.8% |
| 1/23/2023 | -1.5% | 0.7% | -2.4% |
| 10/19/2022 | 6.1% | 7.9% | 25.9% |
| 7/20/2022 | -8.3% | -13.9% | -11.6% |
| 4/20/2022 | -3.8% | -14.7% | -5.7% |
| 1/20/2022 | 1.6% | 4.7% | 12.7% |
| 10/20/2021 | -5.7% | -4.4% | -8.8% |
| 7/21/2021 | 0.9% | 3.1% | 6.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -5.4% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 14.3% | 25.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.3% | -14.7% | -11.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 34.4% | 14.2% | -30.4% |
| 3Y History | 29.2% | -10.9% | -29.4% |
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