MongoDB (MDB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $414.48 | Market Cap: $33.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
MongoDB (MDB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $414.48Market Cap: $33.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.5% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -156 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Hybrid Cloud Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 89x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 102% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% | ||
| Key risksMDB key risks include [1] decelerating revenue growth for its flagship Atlas service and a challenging path to GAAP profitability, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Hybrid Cloud Solutions. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -156 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 89x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 102% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Key risksMDB key risks include [1] decelerating revenue growth for its flagship Atlas service and a challenging path to GAAP profitability, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MDB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why MongoDB (MDB) stock moved by 30.7% between August 31, 2025, and today (December 18, 2025):
**1. Strong Third Quarter CY2025 Financial Performance.** MongoDB reported robust Q3 CY2025 results, exceeding Wall Street's expectations with revenue of $628.3 million against estimates of $594.3 million, marking an 18.7% year-on-year growth. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.32 also significantly beat analyst estimates of $0.79.
**2. Upgraded Full-Year Guidance.** Following the strong Q3 performance, MongoDB's management raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $4.78 at the midpoint, representing a 29.7% increase, and increased its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.43 billion and $2.44 billion, surpassing earlier forecasts. This positive outlook contributed significantly to investor confidence.
**3. Accelerated Growth of Atlas Cloud Database.** MongoDB's Atlas cloud data platform continued its strong momentum, with its growth accelerating to 30% year-over-year. Atlas now accounts for 75% of the company's total revenue, underscoring its pivotal role in driving MongoDB's overall performance.
**4. Strategic Initiatives in AI and Application Modernization.** MongoDB launched new AI-powered services, including an Application Modernization Platform, designed to help modernize legacy applications. The company is also expanding its AI applications program, leveraging AI technologies for data-driven insights, which aligns with emerging technological trends and presents significant growth opportunities.
**5. Positive Revisions in Analyst Price Targets.** In response to MongoDB's better-than-expected earnings and optimistic outlook, several equities analysts increased their price targets for MDB shares and reiterated "outperform" or "buy" ratings. This collective confidence from analysts further bolstered investor sentiment and contributed to the stock's upward trajectory.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDB Return | 173% | 47% | -63% | 108% | -43% | 81% | 220% |
| Peers Return | � | 35% | -36% | 53% | 26% | 27% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDB Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 28% | 65% | 55% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDB Max Drawdown | -25% | -32% | -74% | -14% | -47% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -11% | -45% | -5% | -12% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, ORCL, SNOW. See MDB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MDB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, IBM
In The Past
MongoDB's stock fell -76.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -76.5% loss requires a 325.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MDB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MongoDB
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 259.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,579.6 |
| Rev LTM | 177,414 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47,840 |
| FCF LTM | 7,125 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,916 |
| CFO LTM | 71,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 58,425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,579.6 |
| P/S | 13.2 |
| P/EBIT | 23.4 |
| P/E | 28.4 |
| P/CFO | 31.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 117.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 47.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/26/2025 | 38.0% | 46.0% | 47.1% |
| 6/4/2025 | 12.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | -26.9% | -25.7% | -38.2% |
| 12/9/2024 | -16.9% | -24.1% | -30.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | 18.3% | 14.7% | 10.0% |
| 5/30/2024 | -23.9% | -25.8% | -15.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | -6.9% | -10.5% | -11.8% |
| 12/5/2023 | -10.7% | -9.4% | -15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 18.6% | 18.8% | 17.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -12.5% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 38.0% | 46.0% | 49.7% |
| Max Negative | -26.9% | -25.8% | -38.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12022025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6042025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3152024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3172023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |