Why Every McDonald’s Investor Is Looking At This One Number
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Buyers of McDonald’s (MCD) stock may be betting on one notable trend: the company continues to open new restaurants. You probably think of McDonald’s as a chain with nowhere left to grow, and the stock has had a hard year. It lost 12.4% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 returned 11.3%. That is the puzzle. So how many restaurants is McDonald’s opening, and how much do they add to sales?
McDonald’s Is Opening About 2,600 Restaurants In 2026
McDonald’s is on track to open about 2,600 gross restaurants in 2026, keeping its opening plan for the year intact so far. Management said on its August 4, 2026 call that this marks the fastest period of restaurant growth in McDonald’s history.
These new restaurants are already contributing to sales. McDonald’s system-wide sales, which measure sales across all its locations, grew 4% in constant currency during fiscal Q2 2026. Management said that figure reflected the growing contribution from new unit openings. Sales at its existing restaurants grew far less, with global comparable sales rising 1.3% in the same quarter.
So most of McDonald’s sales growth in the quarter came from outside its existing restaurants, and management points to the new ones. That kind of growth does not depend on more customers visiting the locations McDonald’s already has.
Where McDonald’s Is Growing More Slowly
McDonald’s system-wide sales still grew in fiscal Q2 2026, even as growth slowed in the U.S., its largest market. That slowdown is the likely worry for investors. U.S. comparable sales grew 0.8% in that quarter, compared with 2.3% for the first half, a figure that includes the quarter itself. Management said those sales were slightly negative in July.
Management said the U.S. quarter fell short of its own expectations mostly because of how the company managed its value deals. In late April, McDonald’s added a new menu of items under $3 to its McValue program and pulled back on digital offers. Management estimated that those moves accounted for about 2/3 of the customer traffic shortfall against its expectations for the quarter.
The new restaurants have not escaped the same pressure. Management now expects McDonald’s to reach 50,000 restaurants globally in 2028, later than its earlier plan for the end of 2027, because of the pressured consumer environment and the rising cost of building restaurants. As a result, the openings, which serve as McDonald’s way to grow beyond its existing restaurants, are exposed to a weak consumer too.
How McDonald’s Opening Plan Could Fall Short
If openings slow further, McDonald’s would depend on its existing restaurants for growth, and those locations in the U.S. are barely growing. Management also expects sales growth to help pay for its new growth plan. The company said that the strategy will require system investment, expecting the plan to be meaningfully self-funded by productivity gains and strong top line growth. That plan is McDonald’s > NEXT, the growth strategy the company introduced at its June convention to improve its food and simplify its restaurants. At its September 23, 2026 investor day, McDonald’s said it plans to give franchisees about $8.5 billion in support through 2036.
Buyers of the stock already pay less for McDonald’s earnings than for the broader market’s. McDonald’s trades at 20.8 times its last twelve months of earnings, against 22.6 for the S&P 500, so its price allows for slower growth from McDonald’s than from the index as a whole.
For now, McDonald’s is opening restaurants according to its plan for 2026. The company is on less firm ground in keeping its sales growing while U.S. customers hold back, since the weak consumer has already delayed its long-run restaurant target. McDonald’s system-wide sales growth is the one number to watch when the company reports its fiscal Q3 2026 results, expected in November 2026.
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