Stride: What the Numbers Say About the Road Ahead

Stride Inc. (NYSE: LRN) has lost nearly half its market value in just days after its latest quarterly results—an astonishing collapse for a company that actually beat earnings estimates. The online education firm reported adjusted EPS of $1.52, up from $1.26 a year ago, and revenue of $620.9 million, up nearly 13% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in its Career Learning division. But investors were rattled when Stride’s management projected full-year revenue of $2.48 billion to $2.55 billion, far below Wall Street’s expectation of around $2.67 billion. The company also acknowledged operational stumbles with new technology rollouts, which it said may have cost 10,000–15,000 student enrollments — a critical miss for a business built on scale and retention. Also see: Stride Stock Drops 54% In A Day, Time To Buy The Stock?

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That guidance cut implies revenue growth slowing from roughly 18% last year to just 9–10% this year — a steep deceleration that triggered panic among growth investors. Even with enrollment up 11% overall and Career Learning still expanding more than 30%, the market now questions whether Stride can sustain profitability if growth momentum fades. Margins had previously been improving — adjusted operating income jumped 59% last year and EBITDA rose 46% — but those gains could narrow if student retention and technology expenses remain a drag.

At current levels, Stride trades around 12–13× forward earnings, a steep discount to peers like Chegg or Coursera, which command multiples above 20×. That low valuation reflects skepticism—but also potential. If management can stabilize enrollments and deliver on its long-term target of 10% annual revenue growth and 20% profit growth, the current collapse may eventually look like capitulation rather than a structural decline. For now, though, investors will need to see evidence of execution before betting that the bottom is in.

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