How Will Cheniere Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $58 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $20 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $9.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Cheniere Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 59% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.3%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -0.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.4% | 12.8% | 32.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.2% | -2.6% | 0.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.3% | -1.7% | 0.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.6% | -2.1% | 2.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 3.7% | 0.1% | 5.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.2% | 8.8% | 23.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| 5/3/2024 | -1.9% | -1.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | -4.2% | -7.1% | -3.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.9% | 1.2% | 8.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | 3.6% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| 2/23/2023 | 9.4% | 8.7% | -0.8% |
| 11/3/2022 | -0.9% | -8.6% | -2.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.9% | 3.9% | 8.1% |
| 2/24/2022 | 7.6% | 12.2% | 19.0% |
| 11/4/2021 | -0.1% | -1.0% | -2.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -2.1% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 12.8% | 32.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -8.6% | -3.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 31.7% | 24.6% | 43.4% |
| 3Y History | 43.0% | 51.8% | 50.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Cheniere Energy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Cheniere Energy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| LNG Earnings Dates | LNG | VG | KMI |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.2% | -38.5% | -5.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.3% | N/A* | -3.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.6% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| 2/20/2025 | 3.7% | N/A* | -12.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.2% | N/A* | -0.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | 1.5% | N/A* | 4.0% |
| 5/3/2024 | -1.9% | N/A* | 6.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.9% | N/A* | 0.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | 3.6% | N/A* | 2.6% |
| 11/3/2022 | -0.9% | N/A* | 1.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.9% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| 11/4/2021 | -0.1% | N/A* | -8.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 0.5% | N/A* | -3.2% |
| CORRELATION | � | 2.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after LNG
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