How Will Linde Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Linde (NASDAQ:LIN) is set to report its earnings on Friday, October 31, 2025. The company has $203 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $33 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.7 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Linde’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -0.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 2.0% | 4.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.1% | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -3.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | 0.1% | -1.3% | 5.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -5.2% | -3.4% | -1.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | 3.7% | 4.7% | 15.7% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.6% | 6.2% | 13.7% |
| 7/27/2023 | -0.9% | -1.1% | -2.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 0.2% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | 4.4% | 3.5% | 9.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 16.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
| 2/10/2022 | 1.5% | -0.1% | -7.3% |
| 10/28/2021 | -0.3% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| 7/30/2021 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 5.0% |
| 5/6/2021 | 1.6% | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| 2/5/2021 | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| 11/5/2020 | 6.1% | 10.3% | 6.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.0% | -2.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.3% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.2% | -3.4% | -7.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -25.7% | -0.9% | -6.1% |
| 3Y History | -27.8% | 37.1% | 53.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Linde stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Linde. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| LIN Earnings Dates | LIN | FCX | DOW |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | -10.7% | -13.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.1% | -3.2% | 2.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | 1.5% | -3.5% | 0.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | -3.6% | -7.2% | -3.2% |
| 8/2/2024 | 0.1% | N/A* | -1.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -5.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 2/6/2024 | 3.7% | 1.1% | -1.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.6% | -4.3% | -2.5% |
| 7/27/2023 | -0.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| 4/27/2023 | 0.2% | -5.5% | 1.9% |
| 2/7/2023 | 4.4% | -6.3% | 4.1% |
| 10/27/2022 | -0.5% | 12.4% | 6.0% |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| 4/28/2022 | 2.7% | -6.9% | -2.4% |
| 2/10/2022 | 1.5% | 14.3% | 1.3% |
| 10/28/2021 | -0.3% | -0.8% | -4.5% |
| 7/30/2021 | 2.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% |
| 5/6/2021 | 1.6% | 21.1% | 13.3% |
| 2/5/2021 | 3.3% | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| CORRELATION | -23.8% | 5.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after LIN
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