How Will Loews Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Loews (NYSE:L) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $23 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.7 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Loews’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 1.8%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/9/2026 | -0.3% | -2.2% | -1.8% |
| 11/3/2025 | -0.1% | 3.0% | 6.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -1.8% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -1.0% | -4.3% | -2.5% |
| 11/4/2024 | -3.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2024 | -1.5% | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.8% | 2.1% | -1.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 2.2% |
| 10/30/2023 | 0.2% | 4.7% | 9.4% |
| 7/31/2023 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 5/1/2023 | 4.4% | 1.8% | -0.2% |
| 2/6/2023 | 2.2% | 3.4% | -0.5% |
| 10/31/2022 | -1.7% | -4.3% | -0.3% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.5% | -5.4% | -2.9% |
| 5/2/2022 | -2.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 2/7/2022 | -0.7% | 0.6% | -1.9% |
| 11/1/2021 | 1.8% | 2.1% | -4.5% |
| 8/2/2021 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% |
| 5/3/2021 | 2.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.3% | -1.8% |
| Max Positive | 4.4% | 4.8% | 9.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.5% | -5.4% | -4.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -16.5% | -50.6% | -28.1% |
| 3Y History | -44.4% | -59.1% | -12.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Loews stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Loews. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Earnings Dates | L | TRV | HIG | CB | KMI |
| 2/9/2026 | -0.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 9.5% |
| 11/3/2025 | -0.1% | 2.3% | -0.6% | 3.3% | -4.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | 2.8% | 0.5% | 4.1% | -3.9% | 2.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -1.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | -0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -1.0% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.1% | -11.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -3.5% | -8.3% | -7.7% | -3.9% | -0.6% |
| 7/29/2024 | -1.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 6.4% |
| 2/5/2024 | -0.3% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | -3.5% |
| 10/30/2023 | 0.2% | -1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | -4.2% |
| 7/31/2023 | 0.7% | -0.6% | -5.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% |
| 5/1/2023 | 4.4% | -0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2023 | 2.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | -6.0% | 0.5% |
| 10/31/2022 | -1.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.5% | -0.4% | 0.9% | -1.8% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2022 | -2.0% | -3.4% | -1.6% | 0.9% | -6.7% |
| 2/7/2022 | -0.7% | 3.7% | -2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| 11/1/2021 | 1.8% | 3.0% | -0.9% | 2.7% | -7.1% |
| 8/2/2021 | 0.0% | -1.4% | 5.8% | 0.6% | -1.5% |
| CORRELATION | 0.7% | -18.7% | -21.2% | -23.1% | |
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