How Will NextEra Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE) is set to report its earnings on Friday, July 24, 2026. The company has $186 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $28 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $7.8 billion in operating profits and net income of $8.2 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Smart investing isn’t about stock picking or prediction; it’s about asset allocation. See how Trefis’ Boston-based wealth management partner does it. It has included the High Quality Portfolio as part of its asset allocation strategy.
NextEra Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -6.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 4/23/2026 | 6.9% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | 11.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -0.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | -6.1% | -7.2% | -1.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| 1/24/2025 | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.5% | -4.9% | -8.1% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.6% | 3.0% | 10.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | 1.4% | 3.2% | 17.8% |
| 1/25/2024 | 1.7% | 2.8% | -0.4% |
| 10/24/2023 | 7.0% | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| 7/25/2023 | -0.1% | -2.9% | -10.6% |
| 4/25/2023 | -1.5% | -2.8% | -6.2% |
| 1/25/2023 | -8.7% | -11.0% | -13.1% |
| 10/28/2022 | 4.7% | 3.6% | 11.5% |
| 7/22/2022 | 1.7% | 7.2% | 13.7% |
| 4/21/2022 | -6.5% | -10.1% | -13.6% |
| 1/25/2022 | -8.3% | -4.6% | -11.7% |
| 10/20/2021 | 2.3% | 4.2% | 7.0% |
| 7/23/2021 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 13.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.1% | 11.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -4.9% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 11.0% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -11.0% | -13.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 39.1% | 18.0% | 27.3% |
| 3Y History | 52.7% | -13.5% | 10.6% |
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as NEE, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index, a less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.