Should You Pay Attention To Johnson & Johnson Stock’s Momentum?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock is at an interesting point right now. It has strong momentum, and if you bet on it, you are betting on a company with strong margin, good cash flow, low-debt capital structure, and good tailwinds. But is that enough?
Why Bet On JNJ Now?
The core long thesis rests on the accelerating, volume-led growth of the high-margin Innovative Medicine portfolio (led by Darzalex, Carvykti, Tremfya) being potent enough to absorb the significant revenue headwind from the Stelara biosimilar erosion and still drive overall corporate growth and margin stability.
- Innovative Medicine operational sales growth accelerated to 7.9% in Q4 2025, successfully offsetting an 1,110 basis point negative impact from Stelara.
- Company guidance for FY2026 is $100.0B – $101.0B, representing 6.2% – 7.2% YoY growth, an acceleration from the FY2025 growth rate.
- Key growth drivers are posting strong results: Darzalex sales grew 23% YoY, Carvykti sales nearly doubled, and Tremfya grew 40% YoY in 2024.
- Management has identified 10+ potential assets in the pipeline with >$5B peak sales potential to sustain long-term growth.
How Do The Fundamentals Look?
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- Does Johnson & Johnson Stock Still Have Room to Run?
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- Long-Term Profitability: About 26.7% operating cash flow margin and 25.6% operating margin last 3-year average.
- Strong Momentum: Currently in the top 10th percentile of stocks in terms of “trend strength” – our proprietary momentum metric.
- Revenue Growth: Johnson & Johnson saw revenue growth of 6.0% LTM and 2.6% last 3-year average, but this is not a growth story
Below is a quick comparison of JNJ fundamentals with S&P medians.
| JNJ | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Health Care | – |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals | – |
| PS Ratio | 6.2 | 3.2 |
| PE Ratio | 22.0 | 23.9 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 6.0% | 6.7% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 2.6% | 5.5% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 27.2% | 18.6% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 25.6% | 18.1% |
| LTM* Op Cash Flow Margin | 26.0% | 20.7% |
| 3Y Average Op Cash Flow Margin | 26.7% | 20.3% |
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| DE Ratio | 8.1% | 21.4% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
The Bear View & The Current Investment Debate
The current investment debate on JNJ is centered around: Can accelerating growth from the innovative pipeline (Oncology, MedTech) fully offset the material revenue erosion from Stelara’s loss of exclusivity and absorb major litigation/regulatory risks?
The prevailing sentiment is neutral. Sentiment is pinned at Neutral. The impressive, accelerating growth in the new portfolio (+) is in a direct tug-of-war with the massive, quantifiable Stelara patent cliff (-) and the unquantifiable talc litigation overhang (-). The company is executing well, but the headwinds are structural.
| Bull View | Bear View |
|---|---|
| Strong growth in Darzalex, Carvykti, and Tremfya, plus a deep pipeline, will overwhelm the Stelara headwind, leading to re-accelerated growth and a higher multiple in 2026. | The 50% decline in the $10B Stelara franchise, combined with unquantified talc liability and IRA margin pressure, creates an insurmountable drag on growth and sentiment. |
You can evaluate more on which view to bet on by visiting JNJ Investment Highlights & Full Analysis
JNJ Is Just One of Several Such Stocks
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We chose these stocks using the following criteria:
- Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
- High operating or (cash flow from operations) margins
- Low-debt capital structure
- Strong momentum
A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfill the criteria above would have performed as follows:
- Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 15%
- 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 60%
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Single stocks swing wildly but staying invested matters. A well built portfolio helps you stay invested, captures upside and softens the blows from individual stocks.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.