Johnson Controls International Stock To $80?
Johnson Controls International (JCI) stock has fallen 6.2% during the past day, and is currently trading at $113.95. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell JCI stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $80 may not be out of reach. We believe there are several things to fear in JCI stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. In addition, keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive.
Below is our assessment:
| CONCLUSION | |
|---|---|
| What you pay: | |
| Valuation | High |
| What you get: | |
| Growth | Weak |
| Profitability | Moderate |
| Financial Stability | Moderate |
| Downturn Resilience | Weak |
| Operating Performance | Weak |
| Stock Opinion | Unattractive |
Don’t get too attached to JCI stock, even if you love it. Stocks crash. High Quality Portfolio lets you navigate that risk.
Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $72 Bil in market cap, Johnson Controls International provides engineering, manufacturing, installation, and servicing of building products and systems, including HVAC, controls, refrigeration, security, fire detection, and related software solutions for residential and commercial use.
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[1] Valuation Looks High
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Sales Ratio | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Price-to-Earnings Ratio | 22.0 | 23.8 |
| Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio | 75.1 | 21.2 |
This table highlights how JCI is valued vs broader market. For more details see: JCI Valuation Ratios
[2] Growth Is Weak
- Johnson Controls International has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 4.6% over the last 3 years
- Its revenues have grown 2.8% from $23 Bil to $24 Bil in the last 12 months
- Also, its quarterly revenues grew 3.1% to $6.4 Bil in the most recent quarter from $6.2 Bil a year ago.
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Year Average | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Latest Twelve Months* | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| Most Recent Quarter (YoY)* | 3.1% | 7.3% |
This table highlights how JCI is growing vs broader market. For more details see: JCI Revenue Comparison
[3] Profitability Appears Moderate
- JCI last 12 month operating income was $2.8 Bil representing operating margin of 12.0%
- With cash flow margin of 5.9%, it generated nearly $1.4 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
- For the same period, JCI generated nearly $3.3 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 13.9%
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Operating Margin | 12.0% | 18.8% |
| Current OCF Margin | 5.9% | 20.5% |
| Current Net Income Margin | 13.9% | 13.1% |
This table highlights how JCI profitability vs broader market. For more details see: JCI Operating Income Comparison
[4] Financial Stability Looks Moderate
- JCI Debt was $9.9 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $72 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 13.6%
- JCI Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $379 Mil of $38 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 1.0%
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 13.6% | 20.2% |
| Current Cash-to-Assets Ratio | 1.0% | 7.2% |
[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak
JCI has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
2022 Inflation Shock
- JCI stock fell 43.1% from a high of $81.31 on 31 December 2021 to $46.30 on 14 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 November 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $122.66 on 12 November 2025 , and currently trades at $113.95
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -43.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 846 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- JCI stock fell 44.6% from a high of $42.45 on 21 February 2020 to $23.50 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 September 2020
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -44.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 175 days | 148 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- JCI stock fell 70.7% from a high of $49.87 on 2 July 2007 to $14.63 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 March 2012
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,212 days | 1,480 days |
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read JCI Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
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