JCI Lost 7.4% In A Day. Do You Buy Or Wait?
Johnson Controls International (JCI) stock is down 7.4% in a day. While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to downturn resilience. Consider the following data:
- A $68 Bil company with $21 Bil in revenue currently trading at $103.24.
- Last 12 month revenue growth of 4.3% and operating margin of 14.9%.
- Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.1 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.0
- Currently trading at P/E multiple of 27.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 25.2
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 138% within a year.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for JCI, see Buy or Sell JCI Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and JCI drops another 20-30% to $72.27 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Johnson Controls International (JCI) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.
2022 Inflation Shock
- After JCI’s 7.4% Single Day Slide, ALLE Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play
- Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
- Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
- How Will Johnson Controls Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
- Now Is Not The Time To Buy Johnson Controls Stock
- $50 to $70 In Less Than A Year: Is Johnson Controls Stock Headed To $80 Next?
- JCI stock fell 43.1% from a high of $81.31 on 31 December 2021 to $46.30 on 14 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 November 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $111.73 on 27 July 2025 , and currently trades at $103.24
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -43.1% | -25.4% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 846 | 464 |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- JCI stock fell 44.6% from a high of $42.45 on 21 February 2020 to $23.50 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 September 2020
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -44.6% | -33.9% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 175 | 148 |
2018 Correction
- JCI stock fell 35.5% from a high of $44.19 on 21 July 2017 to $28.51 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 12 September 2019
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 262 | 120 |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- JCI stock fell 70.7% from a high of $49.87 on 2 July 2007 to $14.63 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 March 2012
| JCI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 1212 | 1480 |
Worried that JCI could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.