How Will Johnson Controls Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. Over the past five years, JCI has shown a positive one-day return following its earnings releases in 56% of instances. When positive, the median return has been 2.2%, with a maximum one-day positive return of 11.3%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can potentially offer an edge, although the actual market reaction will largely depend on how the reported results compare to consensus estimates and market expectations. There are two primary approaches to leverage this historical data:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical probability of a positive post-earnings return and establish a position before the earnings announcement.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the historical correlation between the immediate market reaction to earnings and the subsequent medium-term returns, and then position accordingly after the earnings are released.

Currently, consensus estimates project JCI’s earnings per share to be $0.79 on sales of $5.63 billion. This compares to the previous year’s results of $0.78 earnings per share and $6.7 billion in sales.

From a fundamental perspective, JCI has a current market capitalization of $59 billion. Its revenue over the last twelve months totaled $22 billion, and the company demonstrated operational profitability with $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.8 billion.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Johnson Controls International’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -5.3%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

JCI 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

JCI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Johnson Controls International stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Johnson Controls International. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

JCI Correlation With Peer Earnings

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