The stock price of Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) has seen a rise of 6% over the last twenty-one trading days, and it is up a solid 81% over the last twelve-month period. The rally in JCI stock over the last month or so has been propelled by an expected recovery post Covid-19, primarily for HVAC products. Last month, the company reported its fiscal Q3 results, which were largely in-line with the street estimates. JCI stock is currently trading at its lifetime high levels. Going by our Johnson Control Valuation of $75 per share, it appears that JCI stock is fully valued at its current levels. However, given the rise in vaccination rates across the globe, and the expected demand for building products – both residential and non-residential – will likely result in a strong demand environment for Johnson Controls products over the coming years, and this may continue to drive the optimism in its stock.
But now that JCI stock has seen a large move over the recent months, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of more gains in JCI stock over the next month. Out of 490 instances in the last ten years that JCI stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 6% or more, 302 of them resulted in JCI stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 302 out of 490, or about a 62% chance of a rise in JCI stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Johnson Controls Stock Chances of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data
- After moving 2% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 52% of the occasions.
- After moving 3% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 55% of the occasions
- After moving 6% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 62% of the occasions.
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Johnson Controls (JCI) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: JCI highest at 2.2%; LII lowest at -1.1%
- Ten-Day Return: JCI highest at 3.2%; LII lowest at -2.6%
- Twenty-One Days Return: JCI highest at 5.6%; TT lowest at -1.6%