How Will Intuit Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, November 20, 2025. The company has $182 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $19 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.9 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Intuit’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 69% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 63% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -5.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/21/2025 | -5.0% | -4.2% | 0.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | 8.1% | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 12.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% |
| 11/21/2024 | -5.7% | -5.4% | -6.0% |
| 11/28/2023 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 11.1% |
| 8/24/2023 | 4.1% | 8.7% | 2.0% |
| 5/23/2023 | -7.5% | -6.8% | 0.6% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.9% | -2.8% | 4.3% |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.5% | -3.1% | 5.4% |
| 8/23/2022 | 3.6% | -3.6% | -11.8% |
| 5/24/2022 | 8.2% | 13.8% | 16.3% |
| 2/14/2022 | -0.2% | -8.7% | -13.4% |
| 11/18/2021 | 10.1% | 6.0% | -3.9% |
| 8/24/2021 | 0.3% | 2.2% | 4.2% |
| 5/11/2021 | 1.2% | 5.7% | 19.3% |
| 2/9/2021 | 0.5% | 8.3% | -1.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -4.2% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 13.8% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -8.7% | -13.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 22.6% | -32.3% | -16.0% |
| 3Y History | 17.9% | -47.1% | -37.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Intuit stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Intuit. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU Earnings Dates | INTU | PYPL | FIS | VERX |
| 8/21/2025 | -5.0% | -5.5% | -3.7% | -6.4% |
| 5/22/2025 | 8.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | N/A* |
| 2/25/2025 | 12.6% | -4.7% | -5.3% | N/A* |
| 11/21/2024 | -5.7% | 5.7% | -4.7% | 7.4% |
| 11/28/2023 | 2.2% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 4.8% |
| 8/24/2023 | 4.1% | -17.1% | -7.1% | 13.3% |
| 5/23/2023 | -7.5% | -17.9% | -0.9% | N/A* |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.9% | -4.1% | 0.3% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.5% | N/A* | 8.2% | N/A* |
| 8/23/2022 | 3.6% | 4.0% | -1.0% | 11.9% |
| 5/24/2022 | 8.2% | -4.8% | 0.9% | N/A* |
| 2/14/2022 | -0.2% | -35.1% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/18/2021 | 10.1% | -12.6% | -2.5% | -3.4% |
| 8/24/2021 | 0.3% | -7.4% | -0.3% | 14.0% |
| 5/11/2021 | 1.2% | 0.5% | -2.5% | N/A* |
| 2/9/2021 | 0.5% | 12.8% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 20.3% | -8.7% | 14.3% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after INTU
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