What Can Trigger Intel Stock’s Slide?

Intel (INTC) has stumbled before. Its stock has plunged more than 30% within a span of less than 2 months on 3 occasions in recent years, wiping out billions in market value, and erasing massive gains in a single correction. If history is any guide, INTC stock isn’t immune to sudden, sharp declines.

Despite a robust surge in its stock over the past year, fueled by renewed optimism for Intel’s ambitious AI strategy and the potential of its foundry business, significant vulnerabilities persist. The company’s capital-intensive manufacturing pivot, coupled with fierce competition in both core CPUs and burgeoning AI accelerators, demands flawless execution. Any stumble in delivering promised next-generation chips or further delays in achieving foundry profitability could quickly temper investor enthusiasm, leaving the currently elevated valuation exposed to market skepticism.

What Could Send The Stock Crashing?

• AI/Data Center Lag: Intel’s lag in AI solutions is significant, with NVIDIA holding approximately 90% of the AI accelerator market and ARM gaining traction in data centers, projected to have 21.1% of server shipments in 2025.
• Foundry Execution: Intel’s critical 18A process is in risk production, with volume manufacturing expected in late 2025, but its foundry business reported a loss of over $13.4 billion in 2024, and its Ohio factory is delayed until 2030-2031.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and export restrictions pose a significant challenge, impacting Intel’s supply chain and revenue, as China accounted for approximately 29% of Intel’s 2024 revenue.

What’s The Worst That Could Happen?

When sizing up Intel’s risk, look at how much it fell during major market sell-offs. It dropped around 74% in the Dot-Com Bubble and 55% in the Global Financial Crisis. During the inflation shock in 2022, it slid more than 61%. Even the less severe events like the 2018 correction and the Covid pandemic triggered drops of 25% and 35%, respectively. So, while Intel might have solid fundamentals, these dips show it’s still vulnerable when the market turns south.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read INTC Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

Is Risk Showing Up In The Company’s Financials Yet?

Let’s take a look at fundamentals

• Revenue Growth: -1.5% LTM and -7.6% last 3-year average.
• Cash Generation: Nearly -15.8% free cash flow margin and -0.2% operating margin LTM.
• Valuation: Intel stock trades at a P/E multiple of 764.9

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

If you want more details, read Buy or Sell INTC Stock.

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