Why Intel Stock Jumped 130%?

-13.38%
Downside
45.03
Market
39.00
Trefis
INTC: Intel logo
INTC
Intel

Between January 2025 and January 2026, Intel (INTC)’s stock soared 132%, powered not by rising sales but by a 169% jump in its P/E multiple. Behind this leap: a surprise earnings beat, bold AI moves, tech breakthroughs, and mounting optimism around a new foundry deal—all reshaping investor confidence.

Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.

1302025 1302026 Change
Stock Price ($) 20.0 46.5 132.2%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil) 54,247.0 52,853.0 -2.6%
P/S Multiple 1.6 4.3 169.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil) 4,292.0 4,848.0 -11.5%
Cumulative Contribution 132.2%

So what is happening here? The stock jumped 132%, fueled by a 169% surge in P/E multiple, despite a 2.6% dip in revenue. Let’s dive into the key events driving these shifts next.

Here Is Why Intel Stock Moved

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  • Q4 2025 Earnings Beat: Intel beat Q4 2025 EPS estimates with $0.15, exceeding the $0.08 consensus.
  • AI Product Expansion: Unveiled AI PC platform (Core Ultra 3) & Xeon 6+ for data centers, focusing on AI growth.
  • 18A Node Advancement: Shipping 18A wafers with improving yields, a key manufacturing milestone.
  • Manufacturing Limits: Supply constraints and 18A yields impacted revenue and gross margins.
  • Foundry Deal Hopes: Reports of potential Nvidia and Apple foundry deals for 2028 chips boosted stock.

Our Current Assesment Of INTC Stock

Opinion: We currently find INTC stock unattractive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell INTC Stock to see what drives our current opinion.

Risk: A solid way to gauge Intel’s risk is by checking its drops during major market sell-offs. It lost around 74% in the Dot-Com crash, 55% in the Global Financial Crisis, and 62% during the inflation shock. Even in less severe turmoil, like the 2018 correction and the Covid pandemic, it still fell 25% and 35%, respectively. Good fundamentals matter, but when the market turns, Intel isn’t immune to sharp declines.

INTC stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.