Intel Stock Pre-Market (-13%): Weak Q1 Guidance Overshadows Earnings Beat

January 23rd, 2026 by Trefis Team
-19.85%
Downside
48.66
Market
39.00
Trefis
INTC: Intel logo
INTC
Intel

Intel (INTC) is trading down -13% pre-market after reporting Q4 earnings. While the past quarter’s results beat expectations, the company’s guidance for Q1 2026 fell significantly short, spooking investors. Will the market look past the grim forecast or is this a sign of deeper issues?

The sharp sell-off is a direct reaction to the company’s disappointing Q1 2026 forecast. Intel guided for Q1 revenue between $11.7B and $12.7B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.00.

  • This guidance missed Wall Street’s consensus estimates of ~$12.55B in revenue and $0.05 in EPS.
  • Management cited significant supply constraints as a primary reason for the weak outlook.
  • The forecast introduces structural concerns about manufacturing execution and competitive positioning.
But here is the interesting part. You are reading about this -13% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.

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  6. What To Expect From Intel In 2026: Foundry Business

Playbook On Market Open

Conditional scenarios for the session ahead, based on key technical levels and narrative control.

  • BULL CASE (Gap & Go): Narrative shifts to Q4 beat, temporary supply issues; reclaim $48 early.
  • BEAR CASE (Gap & Fade): Weak Q1 guidance dominates; early bounce meets selling, breaks pre-market low.
  • Key investor focus on analyst notes defending the long-term turnaround story.

Verdict

FADE THE GAP if INTC breaks below $47.00. The session’s bias will be determined by the stock’s reaction to this initial pre-market support level. If INTC holds above $47.00, there is a chance for a relief bounce as dip buyers test the waters; otherwise, sellers are in full control and we fade any strength, especially in the first 30 minutes.
Understanding price behavior can give you an edge. See more.

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