Should You Buy or Sell Intel Stock After Its Recent Surge?
Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) saw a significant 23% increase on Thursday, September 18, 2025, following a major announcement. Nvidia disclosed a $5 billion investment in Intel and a collaboration to jointly develop new data center and PC products. This partnership aims to accelerate applications and workloads across various markets, including hyperscale, enterprise, and consumer sectors.
This investment isn’t the only recent show of confidence in Intel. Japan’s SoftBank also recently made a $2 billion investment, betting on the company’s potential for a revival. Some catalysts, including these recent investments, could potentially drive Intel stock up further, possibly to levels exceeding $60.
While several factors could drive Intel’s stock higher, this doesn’t necessarily make it a good buy right now. Our analysis of its valuation, recent operating performance, and historical and current financial condition leads us to this conclusion. We’ll delve into these factors in the following sections. That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – D-Wave Quantum: How Does QBTS Stock Fall To $1?
How Does Intel’s Valuation Look vs. The S&P 500?
Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, INTC stock is currently valued in line with the broader market.
- Intel has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.5 vs. a figure of 3.2 for the S&P 500
How Have Intel’s Revenues Grown Over Recent Years?
Intel’s Revenues have fallen considerably over recent years.
- Intel has seen its top line fell at an average rate of 9.4% over the last 3 years (vs. increase of 5.3% for S&P 500)
- Its revenues have declined 3.7% from $55 Bil to $53 Bil in the last 12 months (vs. growth of 5.1% for S&P 500)
- Also, its quarterly revenues grew 0.2% to $13 Bil in the most recent quarter from $13 Bil a year ago (vs. 6.1% improvement for S&P 500)
How Profitable Is Intel?
Intel’s profit margins are considerably worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.
- Intel’s Operating Income over the last four quarters was $-4.4 Bil, which represents a very poor Operating Margin of -8.3% (vs. 18.6% for S&P 500)
- Intel’s Operating Cash Flow (OCF) over this period was $10 Bil, pointing to a moderate OCF Margin of 19.0% (vs. 20.3% for S&P 500)
- For the last four-quarter period, Intel’s Net Income was $-21 Bil – indicating a very poor Net Income Margin of -38.6% (vs. 12.6% for S&P 500)
Does Intel Look Financially Stable?
Intel’s balance sheet looks strong.
- Intel’s Debt figure was $51 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $134 Bil (as of 9/18/2025). This implies a strong Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 38.2% (vs. 20.9% for S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is desirable]
- Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $21 Bil of the $193 Bil in Total Assets for Intel. This yields a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 11.0% (vs. 7.0% for S&P 500)
How Resilient Is INTC Stock During A Downturn?
INTC stock has fared worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on INTC stock? Our dashboard INTC Jumped 23% In A Day. What To Do Now? has a detailed analysis of how the stock performed during and after previous market crashes.
Inflation Shock (2022)
- INTC stock fell 63.3% from a high of $68.26 on 9 April 2021 to $25.04 on 11 October 2022, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is 50.76 on 27 December 2023 and currently trades at around $31
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
- INTC stock fell 34.8% from a high of $68.47 on 24 January 2020 to $44.61 on 16 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
- INTC stock fell 56.8% from a high of $27.98 on 6 December 2007 to $12.08 on 23 February 2009, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
- The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 March 2012
Putting All The Pieces Together: What It Means For INTC Stock
In summary, Intel’s performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows:
- Growth: Very Weak
- Profitability: Very Weak
- Financial Stability: Strong
- Downturn Resilience: Weak
- Overall: Weak
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The Bottom Line
Despite a weak performance across key metrics, Intel’s stock valuation is only moderately priced, not low enough to reflect its recent struggles. For this reason, we don’t consider Intel to be a great investment at its current level of around $30.
While there’s a possibility we could be wrong—especially given a potential increase in its stock multiple following its partnership with Nvidia—the risks remain high. We believe investors would be better off waiting for a price drop before buying into Intel.
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