How Will Intel Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is expected to report its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025. Earnings are expected to just about break-even coming in at $0.01 per share, per consensus estimates, while revenues are expected to decline 7% to $11.88 billion. Intel has been witnessing considerable headwinds in its CPU business amid continued market share losses in the server and client computing space and relatively lackluster growth in the broader market. The broader market pivot from CPUs to GPUs in the AI age has also been impacting the company’s performance.  That said, we will be looking for updates on the foundry business, which has been ramping up production of its latest 18A process technology. Intel stock remains up by 14% year-to-date. However, the stock has typically fared poorly post its earnings releases. Based on data from the last 5 years, the stock has seen positive returns a mere 25% of the time, one day post-earnings.

The company has $100 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $53 billion, and it was operationally loss-making, with $-4.1 billion in operating losses and net income of $-19 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Intel’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 15 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 25% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 5 positive returns = 7.8%, and median of the 15 negative returns = -7.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Intel stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Intel. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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