Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who’s Winning The Midterms?
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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
Two years ago, Polymarket was the story of election night. Its odds moved before the networks called the race, and its volume hit records. This year it is back in the U.S., legally, with the owner of the New York Stock Exchange behind it. So you’d expect it to own the midterms. It doesn’t.
| Polymarket, by the numbers | Value |
|---|---|
| Traded on 2026 midterm markets (as of ~Oct 23) | about $340 million |
| Kalshi on the same markets | about $1.1 billion |
| Valuation it sought in its latest round | $21 billion |
| Cash put in by ICE | $1.6 billion |
The brand that called 2024 is number two in 2026.
Kalshi has about 3.2 times Polymarket’s midterm volume. Polymarket isn’t shrinking; it’s that it spent years locked out of U.S. customers, and Kalshi used them well.
See more lines: why the U.S. numbers look small
Polymarket’s main platform runs on crypto rails outside the U.S. It returned to American users through a separate app after buying a CFTC-registered exchange (QCEX) and getting a CFTC no-action letter (reported). The U.S. app opened to a waitlist in December 2025, starting with sports, and opened fully on iOS in May 2026, without Android or web at that point (reported). In March it passed Crypto.com as the second-largest CFTC-registered prediction market; in March it averaged about $50 million a day, against Kalshi’s $500 million-plus (reported). 3.2x = $1.1B ÷ $0.34B (estimate). CNN’s Polymarket count includes its global and U.S. venues (reported).
What Happens After Tuesday?
If 2024 is a guide, a sharp drop. The morning after that election, Polymarket’s volume fell 84%. December 2024 came in a third below November. Then it recovered, because people kept betting on other things. The midterms are smaller than a presidential race, so the spike and the fall should both be smaller. The bigger point: Polymarket no longer depends on elections. Its U.S. app launched with sports, not politics.
Does The Result Matter To Polymarket?
More than the volume does. Polymarket’s U.S. comeback came under a friendly regulator. The CFTC dropped its case against election betting in 2025, and its chair has sided with these markets. Democrats want the opposite. More than 20 Senate Democrats asked the CFTC to reverse course in February.
There’s a political wrinkle, too. Donald Trump Jr.’s firm, 1789 Capital, invested in Polymarket, and he sits on its advisory board. A Democratic House gets subpoenas and hearings. That makes Polymarket a likely early target. Hearings don’t stop trading. But they can slow new products, like the political and war markets that critics like least.
A Democratic Congress still can’t pass a ban past a veto. The bigger legal fight is in the states and at the Supreme Court, over sports contracts. That fight matters more to Polymarket’s U.S. app, which started with sports, than any election.
How Do You Own Polymarket?
You can’t directly; it’s private. The closest public way in is Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. ICE agreed in October 2025 to invest up to $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation, and completed the deal in March after putting in $1.6 billion. It also distributes Polymarket’s odds as market data to institutions.
| ICE | Value |
|---|---|
| Market value | $95 billion |
| Return, last 12 months | +15% |
| Distance from 52-week high | −2.6% |
| Polymarket investment as a share of ICE’s value | about 1.7% |
So owning ICE is mostly owning exchanges, mortgage technology and data, with a small Polymarket kicker. If the $21 billion round closes, the first $1 billion ICE put in at a $9 billion valuation would be worth about $2.3 billion on paper. That’s a nice gain, and still a rounding error for a $95 billion company. Polymarket alone won’t move ICE stock, on Tuesday or after.
The other way in is indirect: crypto. Polymarket’s global platform settles in a dollar stablecoin, so its volume shows up in crypto activity more than in any one stock.
Polymarket’s election moment has passed; its regulation moment hasn’t. It has about a third of Kalshi’s midterm volume, and the post-vote drop will look like 2024’s, smaller. What matters is whether a Democratic House turns its friendly federal treatment into a fight. For ICE holders, it’s a 1.7% side bet.
For the whole category, see What’s Happening With Prediction Markets? For the leader, see Kalshi.
How Much Of Your Money Rides On One Bet?
Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner – an expert financial advisor.
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