How Will Air Products and Chemicals Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Air Products and Chemicals (NYSE: APD) will discuss its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on a conference call on Thursday, November 5, 2026. The company has a market value of about $70.4 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $12.6 billion in revenue and $3.1 billion in operating profit before charges for business and asset actions. After those charges, it posted a net loss of $47 million.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Air Products and Chemicals’ Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 40% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 50%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 8 positive 1D returns is 5.7%, and the median of the 12 negative ones is -5.0%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 9.0% and -15.6%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D), and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | 2.0% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | -0.8% | -0.8% | -7.9% |
| 1/30/2026 | 6.4% | 10.7% | 8.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.8% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 2.9% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.5% | -6.8% | -5.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | 9.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.7% | 4.0% | 9.3% |
| 2/5/2024 | -15.6% | -14.8% | -7.2% |
| 11/7/2023 | -12.6% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | -5.8% | -4.7% | -1.3% |
| 5/9/2023 | -5.3% | -5.5% | -4.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | -7.1% | -9.7% | -7.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.7% | 14.3% | 29.9% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.9% | 8.1% | 1.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.7% | -5.9% | 1.9% |
| 2/4/2022 | -6.3% | -10.1% | -21.1% |
| 11/4/2021 | -0.3% | 4.0% | -4.5% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -5.9% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 14.3% | 29.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -14.8% | -21.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years, none of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms. The last three years look different: across 12 releases, the 1D move has tended to reverse over the next 21 days (-0.57).
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.19 | -0.12 | -0.03 |
| 3 Years | -0.33 | -0.57 | -0.48 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
DOW usually reports ahead of Air Products and Chemicals, and has already reported this season. DOW rose 4.7% on the day of its October 22 report. The table compares DOW’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Air Products and Chemicals’ one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is -0.03; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Air Products and Chemicals’. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| APD Earnings Date | APD 1D | DOW 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | 2.0% | -1.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | -0.8% | -0.7% |
| 1/30/2026 | 6.4% | -2.2% |
| 11/6/2025 | 8.9% | 12.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.8% | -17.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.4% | 2.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.5% | -6.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.0% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 9.0% | -0.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| 2/5/2024 | -15.6% | 3.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | -12.6% | 2.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | -5.8% | 1.8% |
| 5/9/2023 | -5.3% | -5.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -7.1% | 0.4% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.7% | -0.4% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.9% | -2.2% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.7% | 2.9% |
| 2/4/2022 | -6.3% | 5.2% |
| Correlation | – | -0.03 |
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