IBM Down 15% In A Month. How Confident Are You In The Stock?
International Business Machines (IBM) stock is down 15.1% in 21 trading days. While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to growth. Consider the following data:
- A $225 Bil company with $63 Bil in revenue currently trading at $242.27.
- Last 12 month revenue growth of 1.2% and operating margin of 16.4%.
- Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.3 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.1
- Currently trading at P/E multiple of 41.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 29.5
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 36.6% within a year. See IBM Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for IBM, see Buy or Sell IBM Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and IBM drops another 20-30% to $169.59 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into International Business Machines (IBM) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Before that, as a quick background: IBM provides global integrated solutions and services across software, consulting, infrastructure, and financing, including hybrid cloud platforms, open-source software, and on-premises and cloud server/storage solutions.
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- IBM Soars 16% In A Single Month: How Does It Compare With Others?
2022 Inflation Shock
- IBM stock fell 20.2% from a high of $145.21 on 11 June 2021 to $115.81 on 26 November 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 November 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $294.78 on 30 June 2025 , and currently trades at $242.27
| IBM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -20.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 356 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- IBM stock fell 39.0% from a high of $149.08 on 12 February 2020 to $90.97 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 November 2022
| IBM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 974 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- IBM stock fell 40.9% from a high of $174.65 on 1 March 2017 to $103.26 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 January 2024
| IBM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1858 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- IBM stock fell 44.8% from a high of $124.79 on 22 July 2008 to $68.86 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 December 2009
| IBM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -44.8% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 398 days | 1480 days |
Worried that IBM could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.