IBM Earnings Preview: How To Position For Upcoming Results

IBM (NYSE: IBM) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Wednesday, October 22, 2025. Over the past five years, IBM has demonstrated a tendency for positive one-day returns in 58% of instances following its earnings announcements. The median positive return on these occasions was a significant 4.7%, with a maximum one-day positive return reaching 13.0%.

For event-driven traders, while actual results relative to consensus and expectations will be crucial, an understanding of these historical patterns can potentially provide an edge. Traders have two primary strategies when approaching IBM’s earnings:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Based on the historical probabilities, one could choose to establish a position before the earnings report is released.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Alternatively, after the earnings release, traders can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns to guide their positioning.

Current consensus estimates for IBM’s upcoming earnings are $2.45 per share on revenue of $16.1 billion. This is an increase compared to the year-ago quarter, which reported earnings of $2.30 per share on revenue of $14.97 billion.`

From a fundamental perspective, IBM currently boasts a market capitalization of $262 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated revenues of $64 billion, achieved $11 billion in operating profits, and reported a net income of $5.8 billion.

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IBM’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 11 positive returns = 4.7%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -7.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

IBM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

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