HRL’s 15% Decline in a Month Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is SJM a Better Deal?
JM Smucker (SJM) offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Hormel Foods (HRL), suggesting you may be better off investing in SJM
- SJM’s Last 12 Months revenue growth was 2.5%, vs. HRL’s 0.6%.
- In addition, its Last 3-Year Average revenue growth came in at 2.9%, ahead of HRL’s -1.5%.
- SJM leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 15.5% and 3-year average of 16.2%.
HRL develops, processes, and distributes fresh, frozen, refrigerated, and shelf-stable meat, nuts, and food products across grocery, refrigerated, turkey, and international segments. SJM manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products, including coffee, peanut butter, specialty spreads, pet foods, and cooking ingredients under various well-known brands.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| HRL | SJM | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 14.0 | 8.5 | SJM |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 4.6% | -0.6% | HRL |
| Last 12 Months | 0.6% | 2.5% | SJM |
| Last 3 Year Average | -1.5% | 2.9% | SJM |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 7.9% | 15.5% | SJM |
| Last 3 Year Average | 8.6% | 16.2% | SJM |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -42.6% | -14.3% | SJM |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: HRL Revenue Comparison | SJM Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: HRL Operating Income Comparison | SJM Operating Income Comparison
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell SJM Stock to see if JM Smucker’s edge holds up under the hood or if Hormel Foods still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell HRL Stock).
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| HRL Return | 5% | 7% | -5% | -27% | 1% | -20% | -36% | ||
| SJM Return | 15% | 21% | 21% | -18% | -10% | 3% | 27% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 12% | 106% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| HRL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 44% | ||
| SJM Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 53% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 62% | 63% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| HRL Max Drawdown | -11% | -11% | -8% | -31% | -10% | -19% | -15% | ||
| SJM Max Drawdown | -7% | -4% | -9% | -30% | -13% | -13% | -13% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 9/25/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year