What’s Happening With Robinhood Stock?
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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House on Tuesday. Many of those bets are placed through Robinhood. That makes it the one stock where the election is both a policy question and a sales event. Here’s where it stands.
| Robinhood (HOOD) | The number |
|---|---|
| Market value | $76B |
| Last 12 months | −38% |
| Revenue, Q3 2026 | $1.4B, a record, +12% |
| Crypto revenue, Q3 | about $120M, −55% |
| Event contract (betting) revenue, Q3 | about $173M, over 6x a year ago |
Robinhood’s betting business has overtaken its crypto business.
Robinhood’s revenue hit a record, but the stock fell 38% in a year and 24% in the past month. The number of users trading crypto fell 37% from a year ago. Prediction markets, mostly on sports, picked up the slack.
See more lines: the quarter and the bets
Q3 2026 (reported Oct 27): revenue $1.4B, up 12%; diluted EPS $0.51, down 16%; adjusted EPS $0.60. The 10-Q says crypto revenue fell mainly because 37% fewer users traded crypto, and event-contract revenue rose mainly on sports contracts. The $120M crypto and $173M event-contract figures are from the company’s Q3 release. October net deposits topped $13B month to date, including $6B from one family’s contribution to the new Trump Accounts (reported). Bernstein expects about $650M of prediction-market revenue for 2026, up from about $150M in 2025 (reported, Oct 26).
Does Election Night Help Robinhood?
For a night, yes. More than $1.4 billion had been traded on midterm contracts across prediction markets by late October, most of it on Kalshi, which Robinhood routes some of its bets to. Robinhood earns a fee per contract. Busy nights also bring stock and options trading. But one night of election bets is small next to a full season of football. The sports calendar, not the vote, drives this line.
What About Crypto?
Crypto is the drag, and it isn’t about Congress. The crypto trading bill Robinhood wanted, the CLARITY Act, failed a key Senate vote 49 to 50 in September, with Republicans in charge. Crypto revenue fell because Bitcoin fell and traders left. A Democratic Congress can hold hearings on crypto, but it can’t undo the SEC’s friendlier rules past a veto.
Here’s the catch with stocks that live on trading volume: they soar in a boom and fall hard when traders go quiet, as Robinhood has this year. For families with $1 million or more, the question is how much of your portfolio depends on that kind of cycle. A Trefis partner firm can help you check.
So Where Is The Real Political Risk?
In the states. Sports contracts look a lot like sports betting, and states that license sportsbooks want them regulated as gambling. The federal regulator, the CFTC, claims the contracts are its turf, and it has sued New York and Wisconsin over their moves against prediction markets. Tuesday also elects governors and attorneys general. The outcome of that fight matters more to Robinhood’s fastest-growing line than who runs the House.
Washington plays a part too. CFTC nominees need Senate confirmation, and a Democratic Senate could slow them. Some Democrats have also pushed back on betting on elections themselves.
How Did The Last Election End For The Stock?
Very differently. Robinhood launched presidential election contracts just before the 2024 vote, and the stock rose more than 50% in the month after, as crypto rallied on a pro-crypto win. This time the expected winner is the party more skeptical of crypto and betting. The roughly 6% chance that Republicans hold the House is the surprise that could move the stock most. In both cases, what followed was set by Bitcoin and trading volume, not by laws passed.
Robinhood’s election is in the states, not the House. Election night lifts betting volume for a day; crypto revenue follows Bitcoin; and the biggest risk to its fastest-growing line is state gambling regulators. A Democratic Congress is a headwind, not a turning point.
For the whole sector, see What’s Happening With Crypto Stocks?.
Are You Trading The Election Or Investing Through It?
Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner – an expert financial advisor.
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