HCA Healthcare (HCA)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $428.21 | Market Cap: $95.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
HCA Healthcare (HCA)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $428.21Market Cap: $95.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 8.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.9 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 21 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include AI in Healthcare Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% Key risksHCA key risks include [1] multi-year payer mix pressure from Exchanges in 2026 and [2] Provider Tax pressure in 2028 and beyond. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 8.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.9 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 21 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include AI in Healthcare Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% |
| Key risksHCA key risks include [1] multi-year payer mix pressure from Exchanges in 2026 and [2] Provider Tax pressure in 2028 and beyond. |
Qualitative Assessment
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HCA Healthcare (HCA) stock has lost about 10% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Q1 2026 Earnings Miss Driven by Volume Declines.
HCA Healthcare reported diluted earnings per share of $7.15 for the first quarter of 2026, which missed consensus estimates by $0.04 to $0.08 per share. This performance was significantly impacted by lower seasonal patient volumes, including a 42% decrease in respiratory-related admissions and a 32% decrease in respiratory-related emergency room visits compared to the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, a winter storm in January negatively affected volumes in some markets.
2. Significant Headwinds from ACA Exchange Policy Changes.
HCA Healthcare anticipates a negative impact on its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $600 million to $900 million due to Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange policy changes. The expiration of enhanced subsidies for ACA marketplace plans led to a 5% decline in marketplace enrollment (1.3 million lives) in 2026, which is expected to result in a 15% to 20% year-over-year decline in ACA-adjusted admissions. This macroeconomic factor is contributing to higher uninsured rates and increased uncompensated care for the company.
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1. Q1 2026 Earnings Miss Driven by Volume Declines.
HCA Healthcare reported diluted earnings per share of $7.15 for the first quarter of 2026, which missed consensus estimates by $0.04 to $0.08 per share. This performance was significantly impacted by lower seasonal patient volumes, including a 42% decrease in respiratory-related admissions and a 32% decrease in respiratory-related emergency room visits compared to the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, a winter storm in January negatively affected volumes in some markets.
2. Significant Headwinds from ACA Exchange Policy Changes.
HCA Healthcare anticipates a negative impact on its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $600 million to $900 million due to Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange policy changes. The expiration of enhanced subsidies for ACA marketplace plans led to a 5% decline in marketplace enrollment (1.3 million lives) in 2026, which is expected to result in a 15% to 20% year-over-year decline in ACA-adjusted admissions. This macroeconomic factor is contributing to higher uninsured rates and increased uncompensated care for the company.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.1% change in HCA stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 487.54 | 428.79 | -12.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 74,372 | 76,388 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.9 | 14.1 | -21.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 233 | 224 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCA | -12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 9.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.7% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.4% change in HCA stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 458.32 | 428.79 | -6.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 74,372 | 76,388 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.8 | 14.1 | -16.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 233 | 224 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCA | -6.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.6% | 23.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.1% change in HCA stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 342.78 | 428.79 | 25.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 70,603 | 76,388 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.0 | 14.1 | -5.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 252 | 224 | 12.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCA | 25.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.3% | 21.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.8% change in HCA stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 280.68 | 428.79 | 52.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 60,879 | 76,388 | 25.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 8.9% | -5.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.6 | 14.1 | 4.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 277 | 224 | 23.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCA | 52.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.4% | 35.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HCA Return | 58% | -6% | 14% | 12% | 57% | -8% | 172% |
| Peers Return | 49% | -26% | 13% | 17% | 14% | -9% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HCA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 45% | 53% | 60% | 58% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HCA Max Drawdown | -5% | -35% | -7% | 0% | -1% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -49% | -21% | -11% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: THC, UHS, CYH, EHC, SGRY. See HCA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HCA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 730 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 15 days |
In The Past
HCA Healthcare's stock fell -4.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | HCA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 730 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 123 days |
In The Past
HCA Healthcare's stock fell -4.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About HCA Healthcare (HCA)
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
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- The Walmart of healthcare services.
- Like a Marriott or Hilton, but for hospitals and medical centers.
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- General and Acute Care Services: HCA Healthcare provides comprehensive medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, and emergency services, through its network of general and and acute care hospitals.
- Outpatient Medical Services: The company offers various outpatient services such as surgery, laboratory, radiology, diagnostic imaging, rehabilitation, and care from urgent care facilities and physician practices.
- Psychiatric and Substance Abuse Treatment: HCA Healthcare delivers specialized therapeutic programs, including child, adolescent, and adult psychiatric care, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse.
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HCA Healthcare (HCA) primarily serves individual patients seeking medical care. Its customer base can be categorized as follows:
- Patients requiring general and acute medical/surgical services: This category includes individuals seeking a wide range of services such as inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, emergency services, and various outpatient procedures like surgery, laboratory tests, radiology, and physical therapy. This represents the largest segment served by HCA's general and acute care hospitals and numerous outpatient facilities.
- Patients seeking specialized psychiatric care: HCA operates psychiatric hospitals that cater to individuals needing therapeutic programs, including child, adolescent, and adult psychiatric care, as well as treatment for alcohol and drug abuse.
- Patients requiring rehabilitation services: This category encompasses individuals receiving care at HCA's rehabilitation hospitals, focusing on physical therapy and recovery programs.
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Oracle (ORCL)
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Samuel N. Hazen, Chief Executive Officer
Samuel N. Hazen has served as Chief Executive Officer of HCA Healthcare since January 1, 2019, and has been a director since 2018. A 37-year veteran of HCA Healthcare, he previously held the roles of President and Chief Operating Officer from 2016 to 2018, and President of Operations from 2011 to 2015. Hazen also served as President of HCA Healthcare's Western Group from 2001 to 2011, and was Chief Financial Officer for the Western Group prior to 2001. He began his career in Humana's Financial Management Specialist Program in 1983 and held Chief Financial Officer positions at hospitals in Georgia and Las Vegas.
Michael A. Marks, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael A. Marks is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of HCA Healthcare. He is recognized as a key voice in the company's financial health and strategic investments, including the deployment of AI tools.
Jon Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Jon Foster serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, overseeing HCA Healthcare's extensive operational network of hospitals and care sites.
Michael R. McAlevey, Executive Vice President – Chief Legal and Administrative Officer
Michael R. McAlevey is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal and Administrative Officer for HCA Healthcare.
Michael Cuffe, Executive Vice President and Chief Clinical Officer
Michael Cuffe holds the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Clinical Officer at HCA Healthcare.
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The key risks to HCA Healthcare's business include regulatory and policy uncertainty, its substantial indebtedness, and ongoing workforce recruitment challenges.
The most significant risk stems from
Regulatory and Policy Uncertainty
, which encompasses potential changes in healthcare laws, government reimbursement rates, and policy shifts affecting Medicare and Medicaid funding. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," passed in July 2025, is anticipated to reduce Medicaid spending, which could pressure HCA's revenue streams. Furthermore, the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits and other policy changes are expected to increase the uninsured rate, directly impacting HCA's revenues. This uncertainty also includes potential tariff impacts on supply costs and a challenging payer and government rate environment.A second major risk is HCA Healthcare's
High Indebtedness
. The company operates with a substantial debt load, totaling approximately $46.492 billion as of December 31, 2025. This financial leverage could limit HCA's operational flexibility, hinder its ability to raise additional capital, and expose it to risks associated with interest rate fluctuations. The ability to generate sufficient cash to service these debt obligations and refinance on favorable terms remains a concern, particularly given global economic conditions.Finally, HCA Healthcare faces significant challenges in
Workforce Recruitment and Retention
. The company operates in a highly competitive environment for healthcare professionals, especially experienced nurses and other key staff. The ability to attract and retain quality physicians and healthcare workers is crucial for maintaining service quality and patient satisfaction, and any shortfalls in this area could adversely affect HCA's performance. Labor market challenges and staffing shortages are ongoing threats to the business.AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerated de-hospitalization of healthcare services, driven by the rapid expansion of virtual-first care models, technology-enabled home-based care, and the proliferation of specialized, lower-cost freestanding outpatient facilities often backed by payers or new tech entrants. This paradigm shift diverts a growing number of patients and procedures away from traditional inpatient and emergency hospital settings, directly threatening HCA Healthcare's core revenue streams and established service delivery model.
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HCA Healthcare operates in several key segments within the healthcare services industry, primarily in the United States. The addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial:
- Hospital Services (General and Acute Care): The U.S. hospital services market size is valued at USD 2.64 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 4.16 trillion by 2035, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.65% from 2025 to 2034. The U.S. acute hospital care market was valued at USD 1.27 trillion in 2024.
- Outpatient Healthcare Services: The U.S. outpatient care market recorded USD 1,029.49 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to expand to USD 1,569.84 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 5.4% during the forecast horizon. The U.S. ambulatory services market size was estimated at USD 289.5 billion in 2023.
- Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs): The U.S. ambulatory surgical center market size is valued at USD 43.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 64.30 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 4.61% from 2025 to 2034.
- Psychiatric Care (Mental and Behavioral Health Services): The U.S. mental health market was valued at USD 118 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to USD 159 billion by 2030. The U.S. behavioral health market size was valued at USD 87.82 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 92.14 billion in 2025 to USD 132.46 billion by 2032.
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HCA Healthcare (HCA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics.The primary drivers include:
- Growth in Patient Volumes: HCA Healthcare anticipates continued growth across various patient volume metrics. This includes increases in inpatient admissions, equivalent admissions, emergency room visits, and surgeries. For instance, in the first quarter of 2024, same-facility inpatient admissions grew 6% year-over-year, equivalent admissions increased 5%, and emergency room visits rose 7%. The company's 2024 guidance also assumed a growth in equivalent admissions between 3% and 4%.
- Improved Pricing and Reimbursement: HCA Healthcare is also projected to benefit from improved pricing and reimbursement rates per equivalent admission. In the first quarter of 2024, same-facility revenue per equivalent admission increased by 3.5%. Similarly, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw a 2.9% increase in same-facility revenue per equivalent admission, reflecting improved pricing. The company's 2024 guidance factored in revenue per equivalent admission growing between 2% and 3%.
- Investments in Network Expansion and Clinical Capabilities: Strategic investments in expanding its network, developing its workforce, and advancing clinical capabilities are expected to bolster future revenue. HCA's CEO, Sam Hazen, highlighted these investments as strengthening the healthcare system. As of the first quarter of 2024, the number of facilities or sites for care increased by almost 5% to approximately 2,600, contributing to non-same-store revenue growth through new operations and acquisitions.
- Favorable Payer Mix: A shift towards a more favorable payer mix, particularly an increase in commercial and health insurance exchange volumes, is also identified as a revenue driver. In Q1 2024, commercial volumes represented about 36% of equivalent admissions, up from 34% in the prior year. This improvement in payer mix, driven by a significant increase in health insurance exchange volumes (possibly influenced by Medicaid redeterminations), is helping to offset potential losses from Medicaid and is viewed positively.
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Share Repurchases
- HCA Healthcare repurchased $10.067 billion of common stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $6.042 billion in 2024 and $3.811 billion in 2023.
- An additional share repurchase program for up to $10 billion of outstanding common stock was authorized in January 2026.
Share Issuance
- HCA Healthcare has consistently reduced its outstanding common stock, with shares outstanding declining by 8.52% in 2025 compared to 2024.
- Shares outstanding decreased by 5.28% in 2024 from 2023 and by 6.19% in 2023 from 2022.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2025, HCA acquired Catholic Medical Center for $110 million and Lehigh Regional Medical Center.
- The company expended $397 million for acquisitions of hospitals and health care entities during 2025, $266 million during 2024, and $635 million during 2023.
- HCA also made acquisitions including Trinity Regional Hospital Sachse for $41 million in November 2023, FastMed in August 2023, and MD Now Urgent Care in January 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures, excluding acquisitions, were $4.944 billion in 2025, $4.875 billion in 2024, and $4.744 billion in 2023.
- Planned capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to range between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion.
- These investments are primarily focused on modernizing facilities, expanding in high-growth corridors, increasing inpatient bed capacity, adding ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), and investing in digital platforms.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | HCA | HCA Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.1% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 135.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.3 |
| Rev LTM | 14,828 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,541 |
| FCF LTM | 644 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 594 |
| CFO LTM | 1,532 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,386 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 4.8 |
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -42.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $428.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 95.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/10/2011 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $492.43 | $457.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -12.9% | -6.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.1% | 26.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.38 | 0.03 |
| Upside Capture | -10.66 | 28.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.7% | 12.7% |
HCA Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.76 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| Up Beta | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.33 | -0.03 | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| Down Beta | -2.15 | -0.05 | 0.06 | -0.14 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Up Capture | 3% | -4% | -3% | 29% | 22% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 19 | 32 | 65 | 142 | 418 |
| Down Capture | 394% | 117% | 44% | 55% | -3% | 66% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 24 | 32 | 60 | 110 | 334 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HCA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCA | 24.2% | 26.8% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.8% | 15.7% | 0.23 | 20.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 12.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | -4.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HCA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCA | 17.7% | 29.7% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.2% | 14.6% | 0.18 | 45.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 7.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HCA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCA | 19.0% | 32.5% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.2% | 16.5% | 0.45 | 50.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 50.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 20.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 49.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/24/2026 | -8.8% | -8.3% | |
| 1/27/2026 | 7.1% | 5.2% | 14.4% |
| 10/24/2025 | 1.6% | 6.1% | 11.6% |
| 7/25/2025 | -2.1% | 3.7% | 18.6% |
| 4/25/2025 | -4.0% | 0.5% | 10.3% |
| 1/24/2025 | -3.8% | 2.8% | -1.8% |
| 10/25/2024 | -8.9% | -10.1% | -18.5% |
| 7/23/2024 | 4.5% | 10.2% | 15.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 14 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 4.5% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -7.3% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.4% | 15.7% | 21.7% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -18.7% | -24.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 76.50 Bil | 78.25 Bil | 80.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 78.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 6.50 Bil | 6.76 Bil | 7.04 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.76 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 15.55 Bil | 16.00 Bil | 16.45 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 29.1 | 30.3 | 31.5 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 30.3 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 76.50 Bil | 78.25 Bil | 80.00 Bil | 3.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 75.75 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 6.50 Bil | 6.76 Bil | 7.04 Bil | 2.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.61 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 15.55 Bil | 16.00 Bil | 16.45 Bil | 3.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 15.45 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 29.1 | 30.3 | 31.5 | 10.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 27.5 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 5.00 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 5.50 Bil | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.00 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McAlevey, Michael R | EVP & Chief Legal & Admin Off. | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 533.37 | 1,694 | 903,537 | 4,721,966 | Form |
| 2 | Wyatt, Christopher F | SVP & Controller | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 505.00 | 4,000 | 2,020,000 | 22,411,395 | Form |
| 3 | Berres, Jennifer | SVP & Chief Human Res. Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 514.58 | 8,020 | 4,126,950 | 6,171,386 | Form |
| 4 | Hazen, Samuel N | CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 501.04 | 42,877 | 21,483,275 | 16,171,705 | Form |
| 5 | Cuffe, Michael S | EVP and Chief Clinical Officer | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 498.09 | 1,500 | 747,135 | 14,944,148 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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