How Will Guidewire Software Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, September 3, 2026. The company has $17 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $1.4 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $117 million in operating profits and net income of $160 million. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Guidewire Software’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.1%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -7.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/4/2026 | -10.0% | -21.6% | -9.3% |
| 3/5/2026 | 5.0% | -2.0% | -8.1% |
| 12/3/2025 | -2.2% | -7.0% | -12.9% |
| 9/4/2025 | 20.1% | 16.7% | 6.0% |
| 6/3/2025 | 16.4% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| 3/6/2025 | -7.3% | -5.9% | -6.8% |
| 12/5/2024 | -14.0% | -15.9% | -17.2% |
| 9/5/2024 | 12.4% | 18.0% | 28.0% |
| 6/4/2024 | 18.0% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | 0.6% | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| 12/7/2023 | -1.0% | -1.5% | 8.0% |
| 9/7/2023 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% |
| 6/1/2023 | -14.4% | -12.4% | -9.2% |
| 3/6/2023 | 5.1% | 1.2% | 13.7% |
| 12/6/2022 | 6.8% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
| 9/6/2022 | 0.3% | 0.7% | -2.0% |
| 6/7/2022 | 0.2% | -11.4% | -6.2% |
| 3/8/2022 | 4.2% | -2.1% | 6.9% |
| 12/2/2021 | -5.1% | -2.8% | -3.3% |
| 9/2/2021 | 3.9% | 3.1% | -4.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -5.9% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.4% | -21.6% | -17.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 1D_5D shows the strongest correlation here: if the 1D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the same direction over the following 5D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 18.7% | -6.0% | -18.1% |
| 3Y History | 26.9% | -1.2% | -23.7% |
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