How Will Samsara Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Samsara (NYSE:IOT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, September 3, 2026. The company has $23 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $1.7 billion, and it was operationally loss-making with $12 million in operating losses and net income of $58 million. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Samsara’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 61% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 15%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -5.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/4/2026 | -1.2% | -8.4% | 3.2% |
| 3/5/2026 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| 12/4/2025 | 11.1% | 7.7% | -10.8% |
| 9/4/2025 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% |
| 6/5/2025 | -4.6% | -13.9% | -16.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | -15.6% | -11.3% | -20.1% |
| 12/5/2024 | -5.2% | -15.8% | -22.1% |
| 9/5/2024 | 13.6% | 19.4% | 22.8% |
| 6/6/2024 | -12.3% | -18.0% | 0.8% |
| 3/7/2024 | 14.0% | 7.3% | -1.8% |
| 11/30/2023 | 25.6% | 22.5% | 13.9% |
| 8/31/2023 | 13.0% | 11.7% | -7.1% |
| 6/1/2023 | 27.9% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| 3/2/2023 | 15.4% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| 12/1/2022 | 20.2% | 25.7% | 20.4% |
| 8/31/2022 | -13.0% | -14.3% | -18.8% |
| 6/2/2022 | -3.2% | 0.8% | 10.3% |
| 3/2/2022 | 1.6% | 5.3% | -3.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 15.4% | 9.8% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -14.1% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 27.9% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -18.0% | -22.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest correlation here, and it is negative: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the opposite direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 26.9% | -8.5% | -33.7% |
| 3Y History | -9.0% | -32.2% | -41.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Samsara stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Samsara. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOT Earnings Dates | IOT | TRMB | VNT | AIOT | ZBRA |
| 6/4/2026 | -1.2% | -7.2% | -12.5% | N/A* | 11.4% |
| 3/5/2026 | 19.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | -1.2% | 8.6% |
| 12/4/2025 | 11.1% | 2.5% | N/A* | 4.9% | N/A* |
| 9/4/2025 | 17.4% | 1.7% | N/A* | 13.4% | N/A* |
| 6/5/2025 | -4.6% | 4.7% | N/A* | -14.4% | N/A* |
| 3/6/2025 | -15.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 31.1% | -8.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | -5.2% | 17.9% | N/A* | -5.1% | N/A* |
| 3/7/2024 | 14.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | N/A* | 12.2% |
| 11/30/2023 | 25.6% | -13.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | N/A* |
| 8/31/2023 | 13.0% | 3.3% | -1.9% | -12.5% | N/A* |
| 6/1/2023 | 27.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2023 | 15.4% | -5.7% | 9.6% | N/A* | 2.0% |
| 12/1/2022 | 20.2% | -10.4% | -8.7% | -3.8% | N/A* |
| 8/31/2022 | -13.0% | -3.1% | -6.1% | 7.4% | -9.8% |
| 6/2/2022 | -3.2% | -9.6% | 1.2% | -17.6% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2022 | 1.6% | -0.2% | -12.2% | N/A* | -7.8% |
| CORRELATION | -20.0% | 39.0% | -12.1% | 70.3% | |
* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter
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