Tearsheet

Guidewire Software (GWRE)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $200.46 | Market Cap: $17.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Guidewire Software (GWRE)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $200.46
Market Cap: $17.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 198x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 184x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
3  Key risks
GWRE key risks include [1] intense competition and [2] a high dependence on the North American property and casualty (P&C) insurance market.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 198x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 184x
4 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
6 Key risks
GWRE key risks include [1] intense competition and [2] a high dependence on the North American property and casualty (P&C) insurance market.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GWRE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why Guidewire Software (GWRE) stock moved by -7.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025: **1. Significant Post-Earnings Stock Pullback:** Following the release of its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results in early December 2025, Guidewire's shares experienced a substantial pullback of approximately 20% from recent highs, despite the company meeting or exceeding analyst expectations for earnings and revenue.

**2. Broader Technology Sector Correction:** Guidewire's stock was affected by a general market downturn in the technology sector in December 2025. This downturn was fueled by investor concerns about a potential "AI bubble" and warnings from chipmakers suggesting thinner profit margins from increased AI investments, leading to a significant fall in the Nasdaq Composite index, which included a 5% drop for GWRE on December 15, 2025.

**3. Profit-Taking and Valuation Concerns:** After experiencing a period of strong performance and reaching a 52-week high of $272.60, the stock likely saw investors taking profits. Additionally, some analyses indicated that Guidewire's stock appeared overvalued at certain price levels, contributing to downward pressure.

**4. Substantial Insider Selling Activity:** Corporate insiders engaged in significant selling of company stock during the period, with transaction amounts exceeding USD 5 million. In the quarter ending October 31, 2025, insiders sold approximately $27.1 million worth of shares, and within the three months leading up to mid-December 2025, this figure was approximately $26.7 million.

**5. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Forecast Adjustments:** While many analysts maintained positive ratings and raised price targets for Guidewire, some firms adjusted their outlooks negatively. For instance, Wall Street Zen downgraded Guidewire from a "buy" to a "hold" rating in late November 2025, and Zacks Research slightly trimmed its fiscal year 2028 EPS forecast in early December 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GWRE Return17%-12%-45%74%55%17%80%
Peers Return30%12%-29%28%21%-2%57%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GWRE Win Rate58%50%25%75%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate54%58%33%54%58%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GWRE Max Drawdown-33%-28%-54%-3%-4%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-18%-37%-4%-6%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRSK, SSNC. See GWRE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGWRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven151.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven580 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven239 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven143 days120 days

Compare to RMBS, BMR, GLOO, KNRX, NAVN


In The Past

Guidewire Software's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Better Bets than Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GWRE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Guidewire Software

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GWREVRSKSSNCMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec. 
Mkt Price199.92218.0387.75199.92
Mkt Cap16.930.421.421.4
Rev LTM1,2723,0306,1483,030
Op Inc LTM641,3471,4261,347
FCF LTM2701,1161,2981,116
FCF 3Y Avg1649421,098942
CFO LTM2961,3481,5881,348
CFO 3Y Avg1851,1791,3581,179

Growth & Margins

GWREVRSKSSNCMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec. 
Rev Chg LTM22.8%7.3%6.7%7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.9%13.4%5.5%13.4%
Rev Chg Q26.5%5.9%7.0%7.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.8%1.4%1.7%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM5.1%44.4%23.2%23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.0%43.6%22.6%22.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.6%0.5%0.3%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM23.2%44.5%25.8%25.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%41.6%23.4%23.4%
FCF/Rev LTM21.3%36.8%21.1%21.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.4%33.2%18.9%18.9%

Valuation

GWREVRSKSSNCMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec. 
Mkt Cap16.930.421.421.4
P/S13.310.03.510.0
P/EBIT198.022.514.922.5
P/E184.333.025.133.0
P/CFO57.322.613.522.6
Total Yield0.5%3.8%5.2%3.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%1.2%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.0%2.6%6.4%2.6%
D/E0.00.20.30.2
Net D/E-0.00.10.30.1

Returns

GWREVRSKSSNCMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec. 
1M Rtn-4.9%-1.5%6.4%-1.5%
3M Rtn-18.3%-10.3%-0.6%-10.3%
6M Rtn-15.9%-28.5%11.2%-15.9%
12M Rtn13.6%-20.7%17.1%13.6%
3Y Rtn226.8%26.2%78.2%78.2%
1M Excs Rtn-9.5%-5.7%3.4%-5.7%
3M Excs Rtn-20.4%-12.6%-3.9%-12.6%
6M Excs Rtn-29.6%-42.5%-4.1%-29.6%
12M Excs Rtn2.9%-34.6%3.9%2.9%
3Y Excs Rtn133.0%-49.6%2.6%2.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Subscription477352259  
Term license249265258  
Services181210210187207
Support727884  
Perpetual license100  
License   304332
Subscription and support   252203
Total980905813743742


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,288,332
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-14.9%
Average Daily Volume596,208
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.16
Basic Shares Quantity84,780,201
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/3/2025-2.2%-7.0% 
9/4/202520.1%16.7%6.0%
6/3/202516.4%15.4%7.1%
3/6/2025-7.3%-5.9%-6.8%
12/5/2024-14.0%-15.9%-17.2%
9/5/202412.4%18.0%28.0%
6/4/202418.0%25.9%29.0%
3/7/20240.6%-2.1%-1.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131112
# Negative111312
Median Positive5.1%8.9%7.9%
Median Negative-4.8%-5.9%-6.2%
Max Positive20.1%25.9%29.0%
Max Negative-16.8%-28.1%-34.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251204202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025911202510-K 7/31/2025
4302025604202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025307202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241206202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024916202410-K 7/31/2024
4302024605202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024308202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231208202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023918202310-K 7/31/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023307202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221207202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022926202210-K 7/31/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022309202210-Q 1/31/2022