Tearsheet

Guidewire Software (GWRE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $193.875 | Market Cap: $16.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Guidewire Software (GWRE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $193.875
Market Cap: $16.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 192x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 56x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 179x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection.
Key risks
GWRE key risks include [1] intense competition and [2] a high dependence on the North American property and casualty (P&C) insurance market.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 192x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 56x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 179x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
5 Key risks
GWRE key risks include [1] intense competition and [2] a high dependence on the North American property and casualty (P&C) insurance market.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GWRE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -10.6% movement in Guidewire Software (GWRE) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Despite strong Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings announced on September 4, 2025, where Guidewire exceeded analyst expectations for revenue and earnings per share, and saw an initial stock jump, this positive momentum did not fully sustain over the subsequent period.

2. Guidewire Software's stock reached an all-time high closing price of $261.88 on September 8, 2025, suggesting the stock was trading at elevated levels prior to the period of decline.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GWRE Return17%-12%-45%74%55%15%76%
Peers Return31%13%-34%38%12%20%82%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GWRE Win Rate58%50%25%75%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate56%58%31%58%56%69% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GWRE Max Drawdown-33%-28%-54%-3%-4%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-18%-41%-3%-7%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRSK, SSNC, SPNS. See GWRE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGWRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven151.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven580 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven239 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven143 days120 days

Compare to RMBS, SPNS, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Guidewire Software's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.7% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Better Bets than Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GWRE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Guidewire Software

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GWREVRSKSSNCSPNSMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec.Sapiens . 
Mkt Price193.93219.1786.7643.45140.34
Mkt Cap16.430.621.22.418.8
Rev LTM1,2723,0306,1485642,151
Op Inc LTM641,3471,42677712
FCF LTM2701,1161,29870693
FCF 3Y Avg1649421,09862553
CFO LTM2961,3481,58880822
CFO 3Y Avg1851,1791,35871682

Growth & Margins

GWREVRSKSSNCSPNSMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec.Sapiens . 
Rev Chg LTM22.8%7.3%6.7%4.7%7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.9%13.4%5.5%6.0%9.7%
Rev Chg Q26.5%5.9%7.0%11.2%9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.8%1.4%1.7%2.8%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM5.1%44.4%23.2%13.7%18.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.0%43.6%22.6%14.8%18.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.6%0.5%0.3%-1.1%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM23.2%44.5%25.8%14.2%24.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%41.6%23.4%13.3%19.9%
FCF/Rev LTM21.3%36.8%21.1%12.5%21.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.4%33.2%18.9%11.5%16.7%

Valuation

GWREVRSKSSNCSPNSMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec.Sapiens . 
Mkt Cap16.430.621.22.418.8
P/S12.911.63.54.37.9
P/EBIT192.126.015.1-26.0
P/E178.838.125.437.437.7
P/CFO55.626.013.630.128.0
Total Yield0.6%3.3%5.1%2.8%3.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%1.2%0.1%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.0%2.6%6.4%-2.6%
D/E0.00.10.3-0.1
Net D/E-0.00.10.3-0.1

Returns

GWREVRSKSSNCSPNSMedian
NameGuidewir.Verisk A.SS&C Tec.Sapiens . 
1M Rtn-10.5%0.2%7.2%0.7%0.5%
3M Rtn-21.5%-12.0%-2.0%1.0%-7.0%
6M Rtn-21.4%-28.2%9.8%52.9%-5.8%
12M Rtn12.4%-21.3%15.5%56.0%14.0%
3Y Rtn205.4%27.6%78.5%151.0%114.7%
1M Excs Rtn-11.3%-0.5%6.5%-0.0%-0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-22.7%-11.8%-3.8%-0.4%-7.8%
6M Excs Rtn-33.8%-40.5%-2.5%40.5%-18.2%
12M Excs Rtn1.2%-33.2%3.5%45.5%2.3%
3Y Excs Rtn135.6%-45.4%3.1%85.1%44.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Subscription477352259  
Term license249265258  
Services181210210187207
Support727884  
Perpetual license100  
License   304332
Subscription and support   252203
Total980905813743742


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,288,332
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-14.9%
Average Daily Volume596,208
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.16
Basic Shares Quantity84,780,201
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/3/2025-2.2%-7.0% 
9/4/202520.1%16.7%6.0%
6/3/202516.4%15.4%7.1%
3/6/2025-7.3%-5.9%-6.8%
12/5/2024-14.0%-15.9%-17.2%
9/5/202412.4%18.0%28.0%
6/4/202418.0%25.9%29.0%
3/7/20240.6%-2.1%-1.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131112
# Negative111312
Median Positive5.1%8.9%7.9%
Median Negative-4.8%-5.9%-6.2%
Max Positive20.1%25.9%29.0%
Max Negative-16.8%-28.1%-34.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251204202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025911202510-K 7/31/2025
4302025604202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025307202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241206202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024916202410-K 7/31/2024
4302024605202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024308202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231208202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023918202310-K 7/31/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023307202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221207202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022926202210-K 7/31/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022309202210-Q 1/31/2022