Tearsheet

Guidewire Software (GWRE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $240.33 | Market Cap: $20.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Guidewire Software (GWRE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $240.33
Market Cap: $20.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 317x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 285x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 317x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 285x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GWRE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate -0.6% movement in Guidewire Software (GWRE) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report. On December 3, 2025, Guidewire Software announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended October 2025). While the company reported total revenue of $356.6 million, surpassing analyst estimates, its diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60 were in line with or slightly missed some consensus estimates. Additionally, operating profit experienced a significant year-over-year decline of 727.06%, which could have contributed to a modest negative market reaction.

2. Analyst Downgrade and Price Target Adjustment. In late November 2025, Citigroup lowered its price target for Guidewire Software from $267.00 to $242.00 and issued a "neutral" rating on the stock on November 26, 2025. Such a revision from a notable analyst firm can influence investor sentiment and contribute to downward pressure on the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GWRE Return17%-12%-45%74%55%27%96%
Peers Return12%16%-5%29%45%879%2181%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GWRE Win Rate58%50%25%75%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate23%25%21%41%38%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GWRE Max Drawdown-33%-28%-54%-3%-4%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-14%-4%-16%-15%-15%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RMBS, SPNS, BMR, BTTC, CCC. See GWRE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGWRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven151.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven580 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven239 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven143 days120 days

Compare to RMBS, SPNS, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Guidewire Software's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.7% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Better Bets than Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GWRE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Guidewire Software

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GWRERMBSSPNSBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameGuidewir.Rambus Sapiens .Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price215.7698.0343.292.223.427.5625.43
Mkt Cap18.210.62.4---10.6
Rev LTM1,202678549-21,026678
Op Inc LTM4124781--06565
FCF LTM28029272--255268
FCF 3Y Avg16022060--216188
CFO LTM30131982--310305
CFO 3Y Avg17824669--271212

Growth & Margins

GWRERMBSSPNSBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameGuidewir.Rambus Sapiens .Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM22.6%31.0%3.1%--10.6%16.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.1%17.3%5.1%--10.2%12.2%
Rev Chg Q22.3%22.7%3.5%--12.0%17.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.7%5.1%0.9%--2.9%4.0%
Op Mgn LTM3.4%36.5%14.8%--3.8%6.3%6.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-6.2%27.8%15.0%--6.9%10.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%0.2%-1.1%---0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM25.0%47.0%15.0%--30.2%27.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.4%44.2%13.1%--29.0%22.7%
FCF/Rev LTM23.3%43.1%13.1%--24.9%24.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.6%39.3%11.3%--23.1%18.8%

Valuation

GWRERMBSSPNSBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameGuidewir.Rambus Sapiens .Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap18.210.62.4---10.6
P/S16.516.53.0---16.5
P/EBIT317.341.820.1---41.8
P/E284.649.023.9---49.0
P/CFO66.035.119.8---35.1
Total Yield0.4%2.0%5.2%---2.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.1%3.3%3.6%---3.3%
D/E0.00.00.0---0.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.1-0.0----0.0

Returns

GWRERMBSSPNSBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameGuidewir.Rambus Sapiens .Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn-5.4%-7.3%0.5%-12.3%-3.1%-13.3%-6.3%
3M Rtn-1.6%33.1%0.7%-20.1%-14.5%-64.8%-8.0%
6M Rtn-15.0%71.5%48.3%-30.6%-14.5%-64.8%-14.8%
12M Rtn5.7%67.2%60.3%-27.5%4,785.7%-64.8%33.0%
3Y Rtn255.2%155.6%142.7%-3,320.0%-64.8%155.6%
1M Excs Rtn-5.3%-7.3%0.5%-12.2%-3.1%-13.3%-6.3%
3M Excs Rtn-5.9%24.7%-4.5%-23.1%-19.8%-70.2%-12.9%
6M Excs Rtn-29.8%56.8%33.6%-45.3%-29.2%-79.6%-29.5%
12M Excs Rtn-7.2%56.0%49.0%-45.7%4,643.1%-78.4%20.9%
3Y Excs Rtn201.5%93.7%70.6%-3,299.3%-137.6%93.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Subscription477352259169 
Term license249265258303 
Services181210210187207
Support72788484 
Perpetual license1000 
License    332
Subscription and support    203
Total980905813743742


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,513,399
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-12.3%
Average Daily Volume629,382
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.40
Basic Shares Quantity84,372,843
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025911202510-K 7/31/2025
4302025604202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025307202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241206202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024916202410-K 7/31/2024
4302024605202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024308202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231208202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023918202310-K 7/31/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023307202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221207202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022926202210-K 7/31/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022309202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211203202110-Q 10/31/2021