Guidewire Software (GWRE)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $200.46 | Market Cap: $17.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Guidewire Software (GWRE)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $200.46Market Cap: $17.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 198x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 184x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Key risksGWRE key risks include [1] intense competition and [2] a high dependence on the North American property and casualty (P&C) insurance market. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 198x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 184x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Key risksGWRE key risks include [1] intense competition and [2] a high dependence on the North American property and casualty (P&C) insurance market. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GWRE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Guidewire Software (GWRE) stock moved by -7.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025:
**1. Significant Post-Earnings Stock Pullback:** Following the release of its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results in early December 2025, Guidewire's shares experienced a substantial pullback of approximately 20% from recent highs, despite the company meeting or exceeding analyst expectations for earnings and revenue.
**2. Broader Technology Sector Correction:** Guidewire's stock was affected by a general market downturn in the technology sector in December 2025. This downturn was fueled by investor concerns about a potential "AI bubble" and warnings from chipmakers suggesting thinner profit margins from increased AI investments, leading to a significant fall in the Nasdaq Composite index, which included a 5% drop for GWRE on December 15, 2025.
**3. Profit-Taking and Valuation Concerns:** After experiencing a period of strong performance and reaching a 52-week high of $272.60, the stock likely saw investors taking profits. Additionally, some analyses indicated that Guidewire's stock appeared overvalued at certain price levels, contributing to downward pressure.
**4. Substantial Insider Selling Activity:** Corporate insiders engaged in significant selling of company stock during the period, with transaction amounts exceeding USD 5 million. In the quarter ending October 31, 2025, insiders sold approximately $27.1 million worth of shares, and within the three months leading up to mid-December 2025, this figure was approximately $26.7 million.
**5. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Forecast Adjustments:** While many analysts maintained positive ratings and raised price targets for Guidewire, some firms adjusted their outlooks negatively. For instance, Wall Street Zen downgraded Guidewire from a "buy" to a "hold" rating in late November 2025, and Zacks Research slightly trimmed its fiscal year 2028 EPS forecast in early December 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GWRE Return | 17% | -12% | -45% | 74% | 55% | 17% | 80% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 12% | -29% | 28% | 21% | -2% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GWRE Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 25% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 58% | 33% | 54% | 58% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GWRE Max Drawdown | -33% | -28% | -54% | -3% | -4% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -18% | -37% | -4% | -6% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRSK, SSNC. See GWRE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GWRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 580 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 120 days |
Compare to RMBS, BMR, GLOO, KNRX, NAVN
In The Past
Guidewire Software's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GWRE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Guidewire Software
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 199.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,030 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,347 |
| FCF LTM | 1,116 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 942 |
| CFO LTM | 1,348 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,179 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| P/EBIT | 22.5 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 22.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/3/2025 | -2.2% | -7.0% | |
| 9/4/2025 | 20.1% | 16.7% | 6.0% |
| 6/3/2025 | 16.4% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| 3/6/2025 | -7.3% | -5.9% | -6.8% |
| 12/5/2024 | -14.0% | -15.9% | -17.2% |
| 9/5/2024 | 12.4% | 18.0% | 28.0% |
| 6/4/2024 | 18.0% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | 0.6% | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -5.9% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -28.1% | -34.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12042025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9112025 | 10-K 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6042025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3072025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9162024 | 10-K 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3082024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12082023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9182023 | 10-K 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3072023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9262022 | 10-K 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3092022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |